AAON, Inc.
$148.25
+3.3%AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 112.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 112.3, earnings yield +0.9%, momentum +3.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +12.0%, ROIC +8.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.5%, ROE +12.0%, ROIC +8.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +46.9%, momentum +3.3%, net margin +7.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
AAON, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Slight earnings decline may be temporary. Monitor future quarters for trend reversal.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 55.1%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Very high P/E suggests premium valuation or high growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-3.3%), the stock price has risen (+55.1%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
AAON, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
AAON, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
AAON, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
AAON, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
AAON, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AAON stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 119.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 118.00 to a high of 120.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 119.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 118.00 to a high of 120.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Consensus overvaluation: Analysts agree the stock is richly valued with limited upside. Consider booking profits or defensive positioning unless you have contrarian conviction in unrecognized catalysts.
AAON, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $356K and sold $19.12M worth of AAON shares, resulting in $18.76M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
142.8K
18.31M
-18.3M
-$18.31M
3-6 Months
4.1K
321.30K
0
0.00
+321K
+$321K
6-9 Months
428
34.97K
6.5K
687.70K
-653K
-$653K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
1.4K
117.02K
-117K
-$117K
Top Buyers
Wakefield Stephen E
Officer: Executive Vice President
$321K
Shaub Matthew
Officer: Executive Vice President
$35K
Top Sellers
Fields Gary D
Director
$12.44M
Thompson Rebecca
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$4.53M
Tobolski Matthew Joseph
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$1.08M
Kidwell Casey
Officer: Chief Administration Officer
$544K
Wichman Gordon Douglas
Officer: Executive Vice President
$421K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $18.76M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
aaon Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AAON by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.