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Industrials - Rental & Leasing Services - NYSE - BM
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EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT
EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT 2018 - Q1
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Executives

John Burns - SVP and CFO Brian Sondey - CEO John O'Callaghan - Head of Global Marketing and Operations.

Analysts

Michael Webber - Wells Fargo Securities Ken Hoexter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Helane Becker - Cowen & Company Scott Valentin - Compass Point Doug Mewhirter - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Michael Brown - KBW.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Triton International Limited First Quarter 2018 Earnings Release Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to John Burns, Chief Financial Officer.

Please go ahead, sir..

John Burns

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today's call. We are here to discuss Triton's first quarter 2018 results, which were reported this morning. Joining me on this morning's call from Triton are Brian Sondey, CEO; and John O'Callaghan, our Head of Global Marketing and Operations.

Before I turn the call over to Brian, I would like to note that our prepared remarks will follow along with the presentation that can be found on the website in the company presentation section.

I would also like to point out that the company will be making statements on this conference call that are forward-looking statements as the term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Any forward-looking statements made on this call are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company, and not a guarantee of future performance, actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements.

The company's views, estimates, plans, and outlook as described in this call may change subsequent to this discussion. The company is under no obligation to modify or update any of the statements that are made despite any subsequent changes. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, and are only predictions.

A discussion of such risks and uncertainties is included in our earnings release and presentation, as well as our SEC filings. In addition, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this call. And per SEC rule important information regarding this non-GAAP financials measures is included in our earnings release and presentation.

With these formalities out of the way, I will now turn the call over to Brian..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Thanks John. And welcome to Triton International's first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. I'll start with Slide 3 of our accompanying presentation. Triton is off to a great start in 2018 with our outstanding first quarter results.

Triton generated $79.8 million of adjusted net income in the first quarter, or $0.99 per share, an increase of 17% from the fourth quarter of 2017. The increase in our net income was driven by outstanding operational performance, reflecting strong market conditions and Triton's many capability advantages.

We also benefited from a reduction in our average tax rate to just over 11% in the first quarter, due to US corporate tax reform at the end of last year. Let's speak about the rest of the year. We expect market condition to remain favorable and that we'll continue to achieve outstanding operational and financial results.

We expect our adjusted net income will increase gradually throughout 2018. We should benefit from improved seasonal demand over the next few quarters, as we head into the traditional summer peak season for dry containers.

And we are off to a good start with our investment program and expect growing contributions from ongoing fleet growth as our substantial new container purchases continue to go on hire. Our Board of Directors has authorized a dividend of $0.52 per share this quarter.

This represents a 15% increase in our dividend level, and reflects our outstanding performance, strong cash flow and optimistic outlook. I'll now hand the call over to John O'Callaghan, our Global Head of Marketing and Operations..

John O'Callaghan Executive Vice President and Global Head of Field Marketing & Operations

Thank you, Brian. Turning to Slide 4. As Brian mentioned, it was an outstanding first quarter. Despite moving through the traditional slow season for our business, the strong momentum of last 12 months continues through the first quarter of 2018.

Overall utilization remains first with continued pickup activity and demand from both our depot 0:05:03.8 stocks and new production inventory. Churn is at a very low level, and what redeliveries we did see were predominantly sale units. Our customers remain optimistic about trade growth this year.

Vessel load factors remain high and shipping lines are facing container shortages in Asia due to the addition of new tonnage and services. This will culminate in even fewer of us hire and more demand for leasing. We have already ordered over $850 million of containers for delivery in 2018.

New box prices have remained stable in the first quarter $2,200, but could increase as we head toward the peak season. The strong start puts us in a very good shape to achieve another year of value added investment and fleet growth.

In addition, we have proven over time that the investments we make have attractive returns, and continue to strength and generate high-quality business. One of the reasons we continue to achieve attractive returns in the market is that we have a lot of locked-in advantages.

These include the lowest operating cost structure and the fact that customers really want access to our large available inventory.

With closed and extensive relationships at the key shipping lines, driven by years of focusing on customer service, and our extensive operating and supply capabilities, we maintain new container availability in all key locations, export locations, and we have a reputation for supply reliability.

We are the easy solution for our customers and often the only company that can meet all the urgent container requirements for the largest shipping lines. This in turn means we can get slightly better pricing and lease structuring, especially in terms of duration and logistic.

Wee also have the best capability to manage containers of the age through an established network in 340 locations across 85 countries, providing the most extensive and capable global marketing operating container sales and service professionals in our industry. Turning to Slide 5.

As I mentioned, the first quarter activity was positive despite the typical seasonality. As you can see the lower left hand chart and pickup/ drop off, the net pickup activity was strong in the first quarter with firm pickups and low levels of drop off.

Box prices have remained solid and this combined with the healthy pickup activity continues to drive market lease rates, because of this our utilization remained at very high levels, and we also continue to see our average lease rates and sale prices strengthened.

Turning to Page 6 or Slide 6, this looks at the key measures of container supply and demand. The top chart that's our key demand drivers, trade growth and leasing share. We expect demand to remain strong. Trade gross is expects to remain solid with both customers and forecasters expecting around 5% growth for the year.

We also continue to see customers rely heavily on leasing, as they continue to focus their capital investment on other strategic assets such as vessels, terminals and logistics operations. So we anticipated continuing shift in mix from owns to a demand for these containers. On the bottom of the slide are two measures of supply.

On the left, the factory inventory has increased, as we've seen leasing companies and shipping lines building inventory, which is a normal preparation for the peak season.

If you put it into the context of overall availability, we see supply demand is remaining favorable with relatively low factory inventory at only 2% to 3% of the overall global fleet and virtually no availability of used leased containers. I'll now hand over the call to John Burns, our CFO..

John Burns

Thank you, John. Turning to Page 7. On this page, we have presented the consolidated results for the first quarter of 2018, compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. Adjusted net income was $79.8 million, or $0.99 per share, up 17% from the fourth quarter generating a 15.4% return on equity.

The increase in earnings reflects a 6% increase in pretax income, driven by continued fleet growth and strong operating performance. Adjusted net income benefited further from a reduction in our effective tax rate to 11.2% in the first quarter from roughly 18% in 2017, through the reduction in the US corporate tax rate.

We expect that we will be able to push our effective tax rate lower over time, as we continue to place a majority of our container investment in our offshore entity. The improved operating results were driven by continued positive, continued supply and demand environment.

This generated strong top-line leasing revenue which was up slightly from the prior quarter despite the first quarter being the traditional slow season, and having two less revenue days. Solid pickup activity and seasonally slower redeliveries also pushed utilization up 10 basis points to 98.7% at the end of the quarter.

Our gain on sale and trading margin activities remain quite strong, generating a combined $12.2 million of gain, up slightly from the fourth quarter as lower disposal volumes were offset by continued increase in disposal prices. Limited customer deliveries kept storage and repair expenses low, leading to further improvements in operating expenses.

Administrative costs declined by $1.8 million, largely due to incentive compensation returning to target levels. Turning to Page 8. This page highlights the strong and stable cash flows generated by our business.

The graph on the left shows our annual cash flows before CapEx, which we define as an EBITDA less interest expense plus a net book value of container disposals and principal payments and finance leases.

The chart shows strong and relatively stable growth in operating cash flows as we've grown our fleet through value added investment over an extended period. The stability of our cash flow is largely due to the long-term nature of our leased portfolio, the short order cycle and the discretionary nature of new container investments.

The strong and steady cash flow and the discretionary nature of investment leads to financial stability and creates long-term value. And appearance of excess containers supply allows us to deliver as we did in 2009 and 2015 and 2016. Turning to Page 9.

Given the long-term nature of our leased portfolio, we look to match the financing of our container assets with long-term fixed-rate debt. At the end of the first quarter, 84% of our debt is either fixed-rate or swap to fix with a weighted average remaining duration of over 50 months, beyond the 42 month remaining duration of our long-term leases.

Due to this matching, we believe we have limited exposure to rising interest rates. In addition to locking in interest rates our debt facilities, we focus on long-duration debt and staggering our maturities to avoid significant maturity class as shown in the table on the right. Turning to Page 10.

The purchase accounting entries we made at the time of our merger in July of 2016 resulted in over $750 million write down in book value of container assets.

Since container prices were close to historical lows at that time, the impact on equity was much less though still material as the accounting rules required the creation of a related lease intangible and a reduction in our deferred tax liability, because of these adjustments book equity is understated and our leverage is overstated.

And therefore we believe historical our pre-purchase accounting values are more relevant. I will now return you to Brian for some additional comments..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Thanks John. I'll continue the presentation with Slide 11. As our results for the first quarter indicate, Triton is off to a great start in 2018, and we expect to have an outstanding year. We're also very pleased with how we're positioned for the long term.

And believe we'll continue to create long- term value for our shareholders, through a powerful combination of steady growth, high investment returns and strong cash flow. Triton is organically grown its assets nearly 10% per year on average over the last 15 years, and we expect we'll continue to achieve a high level of growth going forward.

The container leasing business has multiple growth levers, including natural exposure to high-growth emerging economies, an expansion of trade relative global GDP, continued cargo conversion into containers, and an increasing share for leasing relative to direct container purchases by our shipping line customers.

In addition, trading grows faster than the leasing market without needing to leave with price. We're able to leverage our unrivaled container availability and our preferred supplier status with many of the world's largest shipping lines to take an outsize share of new container leasing transactions.

And we also regularly add new specialty container types and engage in large sale leaseback transactions for middle aged and older containers both of which add incrementally to our growth.

Similarly, we take advantage of attractive industry fundamentals and our leadership position to achieve high investment returns, and the average ROV per trading is close to 20% over the last 15 years.

As John O'Callaghan described, trading scale, cost structure, preferred supplier status and container supply and operating capabilities turn opportunities that would be solid investments for our peers into outstanding investments and high ROEs for us.

Our strong and stable cash flow provides financial stability and underpins shareholder returns over the long term. Investors in TAL'S 2005 IPO would have already collected 125 % of their original investment through regular dividends.

As John Burns described, our strong cash flow comes from the high investment returns on our assets, the long- term structure of our leases, and the short ordering cycle and discretionary nature of our container investments. I'll now wrap up the presentation with a few summary comments on Slide 12. Triton is off to a great start in 2018.

We generated $79.8 million and adjusted net income in the first quarter, achieving another quarter of strong sequential earnings growth. We're off to an excellent start with our investment program and expect another strong year of value added investment and fleet growth.

And we announced a 15% increase in our dividend level to $0.52 per share this quarter. We expect market conditions will remain favorable and expect that our adjusted net income will increase gradually throughout 2018, as we benefit from improved seasonality and fleet growth.

And we believe we are very well positioned to continue to deliver long-term value to our shareholders through a powerful combination of steady growth, high investment returns and strong cash flow. I will now open up the call for questions..

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Michael Webber of Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead..

Michael Webber

Hey, good morning, guys. How are you? Good, Brian just a couple questions on box prices and then maybe kind of competitive dynamics, but I think if I heard box prices being firm I believe in the deck and in your remarks I didn't catch a number.

Can you give it a bit of color around where we are right now for new prices and how that's kind of trended quarter-on-quarter?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sure. So the box prices have held I'd say somewhere below just slightly below $2,200 for a 20-foot dry container, and that's been the case since I'd say the fourth quarter of 2017.

And it's held firm through now during that time though we've actually seen steel prices increase in China especially from say the third quarter level and box prices first got to that range. And so we've seen over the last in a quarter or two the margin of container prices over the price of the steel shrink.

And so that's why I think John O'Callaghan made a comment that box prices have held firm ,but if we see the sort of normal peak season strength, we wouldn't be surprised to see box prices increase some as their margin might be pushed back towards normal levels..

Michael Webber

Right and now have used prices reacted to that I would think they would given just the velocity of pick ups and types what I mean I would assume that they're rising, but if the spread between you and use is narrower it was maybe more people are skewing towards acquiring new containers.

Can you -- where used box prices now on a percentage basis a new and [Multiple Speakers] last year?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes, use prices held, we actually increased during the first quarter which again is fairly unusual given the seasonality is due to a combination of things.

Probably most importantly was just the very low drop off activity of containers and the continued very high utilization, which means that just very few containers are being put into the sale market. And so we saw prices continue to trend up.

In terms of the relationship of used prices, the new prices, it's actually much higher now than it was last year. Last year prices were still kind of rising after a weak 2015 and 2016 [Indiscernible] and 20-foot use prices are actually now fairly strong to new prices and 40 -foot prices are in a normal range I'd say relative to new prices.

But overall it's a good; it's a good sale market..

Michael Webber

Okay, helpful. I mean just around kind of competitive dynamics and obviously you guys have been pretty active in your new purchase program still maintaining and growing share.

Can you maybe talk to there are handful of dormant or kind of sleepy competitors out there? Any shifts in what you've seen I guess maybe quarter- on-quarter and then maybe any secular shifts or any major pivots maybe you've seen since we last spoke around the way you think this cycle plays out in general in terms of how many people are competing for your business?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. Overall, we see the market generally speaking being in very good shape. Supply and demand dynamics feel good with continued strong growth and trade, continued shift from owns to least containers. And then kind of normal levels of new factory equipment, but very low levels of used leasing equipment.

And then coupled with that the leasing industry has consolidated a fair bit over the last three to four years. And even within that consolidation there still are a handful of players that have nots a fully reengaged with the market.

And so there are perhaps say more competitors actively investing than we saw in 2017, which was extraordinarily --companies were investing actively. But overall we look at it as a very healthy market environment.

And believe we're making nice investments with mid -teen type level of equity, lifetime returns and just given where we are with investing so far, I think we're going to have another good year of growth for the business..

Michael Webber

This mean -- is this specifically relative to Q4, 2017 I mean Q4, 2017, Q3, 2017 I guess I mean does dormant competitors have been there for a while like any shift in what we've kind of already known for the last kind of 9 to 12 months..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Not really. I'd say we saw the market being but I'd the most favorable for us from an investment standpoint in the first half of 2017, and then during the second half we saw perhaps few of the bigger competitors that have been quiet in 2017 start to reengage with the market.

But I'd say since maybe fourth quarter of 2017 there hasn't been too much change and who is engaging actively..

Operator

The next question comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead..

Ken Hoexter

Great, good morning. Brian just following on that any thoughts on pricing as on your lease rates right. So it seems to hang around this 12 % on a lease yield on a new run rate or maybe low double digits. I mean in years past we've seen that get up to more mid-teens.

Is it kind of the new market given the increased competition or through consolidation could we see that continue to rise?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. So from pricing standpoint if you mean say the relationship between leasing revenue relative to the cost of the equipment, we typically think of that as like the cash on cash return.

That has been in the low double-digit range, which I say is actually quite typical for the business and typically that cash on cash yield we see range from perhaps just under 10 % in a market with low container prices, and challenging dynamics up into the 12 plus percent range when container prices are higher and competitive dynamics are more favorable for the leasing companies.

And in 2017, we saw the cash on cash return get into the 12s, partially reflecting maybe slightly higher container prices than today, but mostly just a very favorable environment for leasing companies.

Those cash on cash returns have come down some just as a number of those bigger competitors reengaged, but they're still favorable and so we still see them in the low double-digit range and 11-ish perhaps or so. But it varies by deal and by leasing structure and so on.

But as I said, we think that the type of cash on cash return is translating to a mid-teen type level of equity investment returns over the life of the equipment, where the kind of the 12% plus cash on cash returns we were seeing in 2017 was translating to what we think were low to mid 20 % lifetime equity returns.

And so they compressed some but we think they're still at an attractive level..

Ken Hoexter

Is there anything given the --you mentioned I guess two of the larger competitors coming back to market are you seeing anything that would increase the pressure on those returns? Or you view still 2018 and even into 2019 at these levels as of right?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. So far we've actually seen all the leasing companies pricing fairly reasonably and thoughtfully. Again just given the overall attractive dynamics of supply and demand, there's not really a need for anyone to price more aggressively than it seems reasonable.

And again we have a fairly optimistic outlook for where trade growth and leasing demand goes from here so..

Ken Hoexter

That's helpful. And I just a one maybe John on the direct operating cost. It seems like post merger direct operating costs ran up to the $20 million run rate further per quarter last couple quarters come down at $14.11 and now $11.

Is this kind of a post merger stable run rate level?.

John O'Callaghan Executive Vice President and Global Head of Field Marketing & Operations

The direct operating expense is the major components and there are storage and repairs and given where we are with overall utilization at nearly 99% and redeliveries low, I would say it's for a long-term basis that got a low level because of those activities so..

Ken Hoexter

Okay, so given that you see the demand staying the strong or demand should saw I mean especially for going into peak season you wouldn't see that restarting coming up right. .

John O'Callaghan Executive Vice President and Global Head of Field Marketing & Operations

Yes. We expect utilization will remain strong for the rest of year, but we certainly don't anticipate in the long term. We would stay at 99% utilization that is very high, and yes we have noted that repair-- redeliveries are low there for repairs are low. Over the long term both over time end of 2018 into 2019 things but remaining normalize..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

The other thing I'd say that's for sure again operating expenses are low because utilization is high. We also though see -- we've got ancillary revenue. Some of our revenues are per diem revenues or most of them are, but we also -- when containers are being off hired have repair revenues, we have drop-off fees and so on.

And so there is some natural buffer there but for sure operating expenses are an attractive place now because utilization is high..

Operator

The next question comes from Helane Becker of Cowen & Company. Please go ahead..

Helane Becker

Thanks operator. Hi, gentlemen. Thank you very much for the time. So Brian my first question is with the investment that you've done so far since let's say October 1st.

has all the money from the equity offering now been put to work or is there still some to go?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. So I think we typically don't match the dollar from the equity offering to investment, but I'd say our leverage is still slightly below, its long-term average. And so we still have room to accommodate a fair bit of above normal levels of growth within our capital structure.

That said we're also generating a lot of operating and equity cash flow because of our strong profitability, which also is why we increase the dividend reflecting both we think significant and attractive new investment opportunities, but a strong increase in cash flow that it also supported the dividend.

And so we think we've got a lot of room for both growth. .

Helane Becker

Right. And then my other question is with respect to pickup rates.

I know you said that storage costs are low but can you say how quickly your customers are picking up the containers that are available to them?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sure. So as I think we've mentioned a few times that the first quarter is typically the slow season for dry containers. And while we certainly saw that seasonal impact we continued though to see it's a pretty good level of pickup activity in the first quarter.

We are seeing as we're and typically what you do see as you guys get into May and in June and July that the pickup activities really start to ramp up. I'd say we are starting to see that ramped up towards the peak season. And so it all feels pretty good in terms of the progression of pickups and the deal activity that we see building toward the peak..

Helane Becker

Right so would you say like it's taking them 10 days to pick up or 30 days to pick up? Like that kind of thing..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

It really -- it depends on the deal. So we do a lot of transactions that are big transactions that often are partially done by our customers because they have an immediate requirement, but then they also will commit to more containers to be a little bit of blocked capacity for them.

And the deals are structured to have pickups occur over can be many months. So we don't really look at your track at comparison of when we negotiated the deal versus when the containers were picked up. We much more kind of watch the overall velocity of the pickups actually.

Again that overall velocity feels like it's certainly starting to move in the right direction toward the peak season..

Helane Becker

Right, okay. That's perfect. Yes and all the other questions are sort of the same questions that have already been asked and answered. So thank you very much for the time. .

Operator

The next question comes from Scott Valentin of Compass Point. Please go ahead..

Scott Valentin

Thanks for taking my question.

Just with regard to trading versus retaining the boxes I understand there's not much inventory to trade, but how you think about you mentioned that the high price is relative to new how do you think about trading and maybe the gain on sale that kind of trade off between the long-term cash flows versus the immediate gain?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. So it's something we always are evaluating and in our operating systems. We have algorithms in there that every time a container is dropped off it puts it against a mathematical calculation of what we think the net leasing value of the box would be relative to the net sale value.

And then on the basis of that calculation make automatic decisions about whether the boxes will be allocated toward sale or leasing, although for situations where you're close to the line that there is some a fair bit of intervention by our marketing and operations team.

But what we do is we are constantly updating the assumptions in that algorithm and we update it for changes and market conditions like expected lease rate, expected sale prices.

And we also update them on a location by location basis or how we see that not just the overall leasing market and overall sale markets, but also the localized leasing and sale markets. And so we're constantly moving that dial.

Right now for we probably moved the dial towards sale just because sale prices are very high especially for certain container types and certain locations. And for those we've probably we are selling a higher percentage than we were, but that said the drop-off volumes are exceptionally low. So that overall disposal volumes are low.

And while our disposal gains were at a level that we think are fairly attractive, it was really just because price was so high and so the per-unit margins are very high, while the overall dispose of lines continues to be low..

Scott Valentin

That's helpful. I appreciate that and then just you mention it some of like the drive end market rate is pretty tight but do you know about reefer conditions? I know they've kind of lagged a little bit in terms of the improvement you've seen in drive end..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sure. So certainly in 2017 the improved market conditions very much came to dry containers first, but we have seen over the last few quarters conditions really improve on the reefer side as well and part of it is due or probably even most of it is due to just reduced new reefer investment levels over the last two years or so.

And so we've seen our utilization come up very nicely. We've also seen market leasing rates for reefers improve not because new reefer prices have increased, but just because there's sort of less aggressiveness among all the players. I think to push volume perhaps recognizing some of the greater challenges and remarketing reefer over time.

But we do see a much improved conditions; we've started investing in reefers. I wouldn't say we're investing aggressively, but we've started investing more actively than we were 12 months ago. And I'd say that's true for all of our product lines.

I think each of the product lines we operate right now is either very close to where we'd want to get it in the strong market environment, or moving upwards..

Scott Valentin

Okay, thank you.

Just one final question just with regard to obviously the tariff issues still out there and wondering so far not much impact obviously on trade, but just wondering how you're shipping customers are thinking about, you talk them about so far not much impact but is there kind of contingency planning going on or how those conversations kind of gone towards, we need to talk about future demand for containers?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

So as you note, so far we've seen very little impact as far as we can tell from the talk of trade war to actual impacts on volumes. Again the trade volumes were pretty nice for us in the first quarter. And I'd say our customers and industry forecasters remain optimistic about volumes for the balance of the year.

But when I talk with or everything I read continues to point to trade growth in 2018 of something around 5%.

And so I think just in general our customers and probably our customers of shipping lines and their customers, the retailers and freight forwarders, I think are still operating under a base assumption that whatever trade actions happen will not be incredibly disruptive to the global trading pattern, just given how interconnected everything is from manufacturing supply chains to retail distribution chains and so on.

But I think the other important thing to keep in mind though is just the keeping the US-China business in perspective. Obviously, we have a global business that involves many different trade lanes in many different countries.

And we see estimates at least that something in the range of 15% of a vessel capacity and so therefore probably also container capacity is deployed on the Asia to North America trade, which obviously would be most impacted by sort of the trade war talk you hear between the US and China.

And the US, China bilateral trade is some portion of that overall 15% and so even a fairly significant disruption to that portion of trade wouldn't be necessarily a huge change in the overall volume of global containerized trade.

And then also I think one thing I think our customers talk about too is that even if say China to the US movements are disrupted, a lot of that isn't just going to be an elimination of trade, but a relocation of trade which the way our containers naturally follow the trade for us wouldn't be hugely disrupted either.

So I think at least when we think about the trade war it's much more in regards to what could the spillover effects be that while we wouldn't welcome any bilateral challenges between China and the US.

I think it wouldn't again significantly disrupt what's going on globally other than if we saw it's a trade create protectionism spread as a political objective around the world or perhaps seen a real income effects of trade in the US and China having follow-on consequences.

But overall we don't yet see a lot of impact on activity or yet a lot of anxiety among our customer base..

Operator

The next question comes from Doug Mewhirter of SunTrust. Please go ahead..

Doug Mewhirter

Hi, good morning. First just a numbers question for John. I think I might know the answer this but notice that the depreciation expense was sort of flattish sequentially from the fourth quarter, while your fleet, the book value of your fleet grew a bit.

I just didn't know if maybe your CapEx was really back loaded in the quarter, so you just had a few less -- so you didn't really have that incremental depreciation or was there something else in the mix?.

John Burns

Yes. It's good point question. We start depreciation when the units go on hire, their first on hire so we will have containers that are accepted and go into the fleet, but are not on hire yet in the new containers. We also over time as we have units continuing to go past the 13 year depreciation age and been stopped depreciating.

So a combination of those items is what led to the change in depreciation..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

And just the reason for-- while the first one you see it tends to be a seasonal item. So as we've talked about the peak season for moving dry containers for our customers typically say is May through October, and because of that we typically as we build containers they tend to go on higher pretty fast.

And so you don't have a lot of say containers that are on our balance sheet, but not yet deployed to customers. When we go into the slower part of the season, we typically start building inventory to handle the next year's peak. And you see that in some of the supply metrics that John O'Callaghan shared.

And so we just have a slightly larger portion of our fleet that we've built and put on the balance sheet, but haven't yet deployed with customers..

Doug Mewhirter

Thank. That's very helpful. Regarding CapEx, sounds like you still sort of eager to take advantage of these conditions notwithstanding the higher dividend and you mentioned in the press release you had $850 million I think committed for lease which I assume some of that was in -- a lot of that was in the fourth quarter cash flow statement.

Do you think that your second quarter sort of investing cash flow would exceed your first quarter, all is equal?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sorry Doug. And so first we talked about CapEx in term number that we give. We define it by containers delivered in the calendar year. So you're right that some of the $850 million that we've talked about was ordered in the fourth quarter, but all of it's been delivered or is planned to be delivered in 2018.

So wouldn't have been reflected yet in the cash flow statement. Typically it goes in there even a month or two after it's delivered. So there is a lag there between the ordering activity and the when it shows up in the cash flow statement.

In terms of the pace of ordering, it's been I'd say it a pretty good clip straight on through from the fourth quarter through now as we've -- some of it was building inventory, getting ready for the peak season, but we also did a lot of leasing transactions along the way as well. And right now we're ordering for delivery in June.

So on a delivery basis where we're kind of about halfway through the year..

Doug Mewhirter

Thanks. That's very helpful. My last question maybe for John or one of the John's. The porter shortage and I think you cited that there were increased ship deliveries. So and I thought it was unusual that they would order to the number of ships in terms of containers rather than the absolute demand.

And I didn't know how that dynamic worked and would there be a risk of maybe a little bit of an air pocket because they sort of filled up that initial capacity for the ships, these new ships and they wouldn't need any more like the next quarter?.

John O'Callaghan Executive Vice President and Global Head of Field Marketing & Operations

Yes. Maybe I'll give that a shot and one of the other guys can jump in, but what drive container demand is not the vessel but rather the actual trade. So certainly we're seeing -- our customers order a lot of vessels, a lot of that are to address growth in the market, but it's also to get more competitive vessels.

So but we don't try to link the two because it's really about worldwide trade growth which is linked to worldwide GDP growth et cetera..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. And I think you're really sort of the impact is much more secondary and so I think John O'Callaghan mentioned that we have seen the increased share for leasing continued.

And we think that's mainly because our customers continue to be competing very aggressively on kind of the vessel level efficiencies of getting bigger, more fuel-efficient ships, also competing aggressively on land side investments.

And so one reason we have some confidence that we're going to see leasing share continue to be high as the pace, the ongoing pace of container vessel ordering and delivery. And I think we also just take it frankly as a sign of optimism by the customers that trade growth is going to remain fairly solid..

Doug Mewhirter

Okay, thanks. Okay so is the way I'm saying [Multiple Speakers].

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Connection..

Doug Mewhirter

Yes. I see - they didn't order boxes to just fill up ships, they ordered boxes because they used all their money on ships. Okay the way I interpret that question. Okay, thank you. That's all my questions..

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Brown of KBW. Please go ahead..

Michael Brown

Hi, good morning. So just a question about the fixed and hedged debt decline very slightly this quarter compared to last quarter to 84%.

So what would kind of be the target makes us as we look at a period of rising rates? I guess where would you want to take that? And then you also had said that the duration of the fix rate debt a bit longer than the average lease duration.

Did you give that number and if not can you just share what the average lease duration is?.

John Burns

The average long-term lease duration in finance leases is about 42 months, but again that to the end of the contractual term. And given the way the business operates typically those units will stay on for 6 to 12 months beyond that. So that touches to your question about how we think about a little bit beyond the lease duration for our hedging.

You noted that it was down a little bit. It was 86 at the end of the last quarter to 84. A large portion of -- our business is long term business. It ranges in 80% plus fixed-rate leases. So somewhere in that range whether its high 70s, low 80s is where we like to be. .

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes and I just say too similar to the question on depreciation that right now is sort of the time of year we probably have the largest portion of our containers waiting for pickup, because it's right ahead of the peak season and so similarly when we tend to try to match interest rates is where the containers on lease.

And so you would just expect naturally. A bunch of this is the reason, it's also just a random variation as we do debt deals and swap transactions.

But it also would make sense right now that the variable rate might be a little bit higher, a bit of a portion little bit higher while we're getting ready to enter the peak season and to lease out that inventory..

Michael Brown

Great, thank you. Two-part question here.

During the quarter one of your peers went to market with a preferred stock issuance, is that something that you would consider to do a fund CapEx? And part of the proceeds from that preferred stock were used to repurchase shares and clearly the dividend raise is a positive so how do you view kind of valuation of your shares currently in which you kind of look to also return capital to shareholders via share repurchase?.

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

Yes. So I'd say we look at our stock right now as a very good investment. We have a business that we think is very interesting business niche with attractive fundamentals. We've got the clear dominant position in that business. We're performing really well. We've got an optimistic outlook going forward.

And all that comes together we say, boy, it's interesting where our shares are trading. I think when it comes to preferred stock as a financing tool; I also think it's an interesting tool.

And it's something that we have seen others not just the recent issuance in the leasing space, but also others say in related businesses use as a way to finance their growth. I'd say for us, we have sufficient cash flow as you mentioned to both finance a pretty high rate of growth, it certainly well in excess of market growth.

While also paying a high regular dividend. And so we don't really need to issue any new kind of capital to fund the growth, the growth that's out there. I guess if you're saying can we have some kind of program where we issue preferred and repurchase common as I suppose that something we could consider.

And we always do consider share repurchases as alternative uses for our cash, and something that we will continue to consider going forward..

Michael Brown

Right, that's helpful, thank you.

Just one last one in your prepared remarks I believe you guys said that you could kind of bring the tax rate down from that 11% to range bring it down a bit now -- are you basically guiding to that you could bring that to the bottom end of your range, and then if so I guess could you give some guidance as to your timing or when you expect to get there?.

John Burns

Yes. I'd say what we had talked about for the current year is somewhere in the 10% to 12% range in the earnings release. As we go forward exactly what the number will go down to would be over time as we invest more of the containers in the offshore entity and less in the US. That should drift downwards to high single digits over time..

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brian Sondey, Chief Executive Officer for any closing remarks..

Brian Sondey Chief Executive Officer & Director

I would like to thank everyone for your ongoing interest and support of Triton International. Thank you..

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect..

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