Matt Roskot - Investor Relations John Ketchum - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy Jim Robo - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy Partners, LP Armando Pimentel - President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy Resources.
Josephine Moore - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Durgesh Chopra - Evercore ISI Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Abe Azar - Deutsche Bank Colin Rusch - Oppenheimer & Company.
Good morning, and welcome to the NextEra Energy Inc. and NextEra Energy Partners, LP Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Roskot. Please go ahead..
Thank you, Brendon. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our Second Quarter 2018 Combined Earnings Conference Call for NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners.
With me this morning are Jim Robo, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy; John Ketchum, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy; Armando Pimentel, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy Resources; and Mark Hickson, Executive Vice President of NextEra Energy, all of whom are also officers of NextEra Energy Partners; as well as Eric Silagy, President and Chief Executive Officer of Florida Power & Light Company.
John will provide an overview of our results and our executive team will then be available to answer your questions. We will be making forward-looking statements during this call based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements, if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in today’s earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or on our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our websites, nexteraenergy.com and nexteraenergypartners.com.
We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Today’s presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures.
You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today’s presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure. With that, I will turn the call over to John..
acquiring assets from Energy Resources, organically or acquiring assets from other third parties, provides clear visibility to support its growth going forward.
With what we view as the best renewables development period in our history, as reflected by the outstanding origination success that Energy Resources continues to have, NEP’s already best-in-class distribution growth visibility will further improve over the coming years.
Additionally, NEP’s cost of capital and access to capital advantages provide substantial flexibility to finance its long-term growth without a need to sell common equity until 2020 at the earliest, other than modest at-the-market issuances.
These strengths, combined with NEP’s favorable tax position and enhanced governance rights help provide a best-in-class investor value proposition and leave NEP well-positioned to meet its long-term financial expectations. For these reasons, NEP is as well positioned as it’s ever been and we look forward to continued strong performance going forward.
That concludes our prepared remarks and with that we will open the line for questions..
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead..
Good morning, everyone. It's Josephine here. Hope you're all well..
Hi, Josephine.
How are you?.
Good. So, of course the recent ITC is clearly a huge positive.
But could you guys discuss the implications for SoBRA at FPL and the timing on the regulatory filings? And then maybe also on NEER, is there a potential for a shift of demand out of 2019, into the early 2020s given the greater latitude from the safe harboring?.
So, with respect to the filings for FPL, remember with the SoBRA mechanism, we have the ability to construct up to 300 megawatts a year. And then anything that is under 75 megawatts does not fall under the purview of the siting act. Does that answer your question, [indiscernible], on that piece? And I'm sorry, your second question….
Yes, NEER. .
Go ahead..
So, is there a possibility for some demand to shift out of 2019 into the early 2020s?.
Well, you mean with regard to solar?.
Yes..
Yes. So, with the ITC extension that we see, obviously that really positions the company well for continued growth, not only this decade, but well into the next decade. So, we are actively developing our safe harbor plans for 2019, which will continue to support our growth through 2023 on the solar side.
But, as you can see from our results on our origination efforts this quarter, we continue to see very strong interest in solar, particularly when we combine it with a storage option. That has been a very attractive product for our customers.
So, while you may see a bit of a step function like what we've seen in wind as you move well into the next decade, we don't anticipate any material drop-off in demand for solar or solar-plus-storage installations through the end of this decade..
Got it. Great.
And then on the Gulf Power acquisition, do you think that there's a possibility to bring Gulf Power closer to the regulatory metrics, i.e., equity ratio, ROEs, reserve amortization, enjoyed by FPL?.
Yes. Our plan is to operate Gulf under the terms and conditions of its current settlement agreement.
And that is what is included in our base case and what we said on our last call, with our expectations to be able to grow Gulf, Florida City Gas, and the two gas plants on a combined basis at roughly 16%, which is the high-end of our expectations for adjusted EPS growth for NextEra Energy from 2018 through 2021..
So, any such changes would then be incremental to the accretion numbers we're seeing right now..
Any changes would be incremental, but again our base case is to operate under the current settlement agreement that's in place for Gulf..
Okay, great. And then just one last question.
Could we get an update on Project Accelerate and how that's tracking and outlook for 2019?.
Yes. So, as we said at the Analyst Day in 2017, that was an opportunity to generate roughly $425 million of run rate savings beginning in 2019. The project continues to progress extremely well. And we continue to look for even further O&M savings opportunities across the business. We're only getting started.
There are a number of opportunities for us to continue to drive cost savings across the business by leveraging technologies and applying smarter approaches to how we conduct our business. And so, the company is constantly engaged on a mission of continuously improving our cost structure. And so, Project Accelerate 1 is only the beginning..
Got it. Great. Well, that's all for me. Thank you very much..
Thank you..
Our next question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead..
Hi. Good morning and congratulations on the good results..
Oh, thank you, Stephen..
Wanted to just follow up on storage. You had provided some good commentary in your prepared remarks around storage, but just stepping back, I know you, at your analyst event, laid out your trajectory on where you see costs going.
I guess, we continue to get surprised just by how cheap storage is becoming, but I'm just curious from what you're seeing out in the marketplace for storage, is the trajectory at all surprising to you in terms of the cost reductions? Where can it head from here? What's your general outlook on where costs may go for storage?.
Yes. I mean, the way I think about it, Stephen, is how we've been pricing it into our PPAs. I mean, roughly on transactions we've done over the last 6 to 12 months, you can think of it as roughly $0.015 a kilowatt hour.
That is probably going to move, with what we see with the significant investment being made in electric vehicles and the cost declines that we expect to see on the solar side. Early in the next decade, mid-next decade, it's going to probably be about $0.005 a kilowatt hour adds, maybe $0.01, but probably closer to about $0.005.
And so, if we find ourselves in a marketplace where we are selling wind right around $0.02, I mean, a combined wind and solar product probably looks roughly around $0.025. Solar, into the next decade, probably looks more like a $0.03 product, sub-$0.03 in some markets.
You add half a penny on that on the high end, you're probably at about $ 0.035 a kilowatt hour, depends on the market and land costs..
That's really helpful..
Hi, Stephen. This is Jim. I just wanted to add something to what John said. So, we've been doing some work recently on thinking about what is firm. And that's a little bit of an existential question, and it depends on obviously the size of the market and kind of the individual characteristics of the generation in those markets.
But our thinking is for the first 5-gigawatts in the country, firm, you know a two-hour battery is probably firm for the first 5-gigawatts of battery penetration, maybe three hours. It depends again on the characteristics of the site.
And then, as you get to penetration levels of 15% in the country, we see firm battery storage of four hours is about right to really make it firm and make it look a lot like a peaker [ph]. So, there's a lot of work that we're doing, kind of pushing the ball forward on how we think about - because it's not just what the cost is.
It's also what the application is, and how you use the storage, and also the streams of value that you can put against it. That's just the capacity value. And obviously there's a bunch of other streams of value that essentially buy down the cost of that battery relative to making it, "firm" in a system context.
So, a lot of really interesting work that's going on right now, and we're right at the beginning of, I think, a real revolution in this country in terms of how electricity is – how storage interacts with electricity on the grid, and how we're going to start delivering our much different, firm, renewable products to our customers going forward..
Well, that's really helpful, Jim and John. And maybe, Jim, just adding to that, you've talked in the past about the combination of wind and solar and storage and sort of the – I guess, I'd call it the unique big-data capabilities you have to have and understanding how those three products work together.
Is that something you still view as a competitive advantage? Do you see new entrants there? What's the real sort of barriers to entry around being able to master the combination of those three things?.
I think there's an enormous amount of intellectual work that's going on, intellectual content that's going on, around that. And big data is just a part of it. But we have a lot of capabilities in that area. Literally, we have now hundreds of data scientists working on several big data applications in our business.
I've been talking about how obviously providing firm renewables is one activity where you really need big data to understand how to do that. The other, honestly, is wind O&M and availability, and a third is grid ops. And we have folks working on all three of those things and are generating new ideas and new applications every day.
And so, it's actually one of the really exciting pieces of what we're doing now with Project Accelerate, and really the second phase of Project Accelerate that we launched this year was a big focus on artificial intelligence and big data..
Very good. I'll let others speak. Thanks so much..
Thank you, Stephen..
Our next question comes from Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead..
Good morning, guys. It's actually Durgesh on for Greg.
How are you?.
Good.
How are you, Durgesh?.
Good. Just two quick follow-ups. We had a few questions on storage, but you guys have given a very detailed overview, so I'm not going to bog you down for that. On the MVP pipeline, just to clarify, are you saying that given what you're seeing, you still think that you can bring that into service by Q1 2019.
Did I hear that correctly?.
You did..
Okay.
And then your share of investment in that pipeline is $1 billion, correct?.
$1.1 billion..
And just one quick one, and maybe I missed this, the income tax rule, the unfavorable income tax rule that was driving corporate [indiscernible] unfavorable this quarter.
What was that again?.
I'm sorry. Say that again, Durgesh..
So, there was a – you'd mentioned in your commentary….
Oh, yes. The 172(f). So, we had an adverse court decision under Internal Revenue Code Section 172(f), which basically allows us to carry back net operating losses on decommissioning costs for nuclear plants back to the date when the nuclear plant was first put into service.
And we took the position that spent nuclear fuel disposal fees that we have been paying to the DOE would qualify under that unlimited carryback provision. We did not prevail on that position..
I see. So, you've taken that – basically you have trued up that charge.
Is that truly one-time?.
That is one-time. It's $0.06. And obviously had that $0.06 not occurred, what was a strong quarter would have been even a stronger quarter..
Awesome. Thanks again..
Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead..
Hi. Good morning, guys..
Good morning, Shar..
Apologize. I jumped in a little bit late here. I just want to confirm on sort of the rate proceeding comments.
With the reserve amortization, you expect to stay out of a rate case at FP&L through 2022, is that correct?.
Yes, the potential is to stay out up to 2022..
Okay. Got it.
And then assuming you hit your regulatory ROE by the third quarter, can you just – what's the reserve balance by year-end?.
Shar, we haven't said, but obviously that reserve balance starts to reverse, creating a surplus position. And our view is that we would have sufficient surplus by the end of 2020 to stay out potentially up to one to two years through 2022..
Okay. Got it. And then just on Gulf Power, so you're going to support the settlement that's out there.
And then is it fair to assume, following the tenor of the settlement, you'll likely file a GRC to at least true up sort of the regulatory construct and sort of the ROEs that you're afforded at FP&L at Gulf Power?.
Yeah. Our focus right now is closing the transaction and moving forward and applying the FPL operating model to Gulf within the confines of Gulf's current settlement agreement. So, no plans right now to revisit any of the terms or conditions in the Gulf settlement agreement..
Got it. Okay.
And then just lastly, on your $7 billion of borrowing capacity, can you just provide maybe a little bit more context on sort of what could be interesting as you sort of think about the opportunity set out there? Has additional midstream opportunities sort of opened up around the Midwest/Southeast region that could provide some of that source or more electric opportunities, co-ops, or – I guess what seems to be interesting as you guys are looking out there?.
Well, the focus is going to continue to be on regulated M&A, not on midstream opportunities. And so, when we think about regulated M&A, the first thing we think about is constructive regulatory jurisdictions.
The second thing we think about is the opportunity to really derive value and apply the FPL playbook through generation modernization, the ability to operate the business efficiently.
And when you look at all of those things and you put those things together in particularly regulatory environments, the targets would be in the Midwest and in the Southeast as being the most attractive alternatives for us..
Okay. All right. Thanks so much, guys..
Yes. Thanks, Shar..
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Pardon me.
Michael?.
Hi, guys. Just curious, sorry.
Where do you see returns being better? Meaning, is there a significant difference at all in the returns for repowered wind projects versus new-builds? And also, when you're doing a repowering, are you usually contracting back to the existing counterparty that had the original contract, or is this a, kind of, open up to market and whoever comes to the table type of environment?.
Yeah. So, first of all, the returns are a little better, right? Because we're typically blending and extending the contract. You're restarting the PTC clock, but you're making half the capital investment that you would typically have to make in a new-build scenario.
And in terms of contracting, we're always trying to work with the existing counterparty..
A follow-up for utility-scale solar development in the U.S. just in general.
What states, or what parts of the country, where currently there isn't a lot of utility scale solar kind of on the ground operating are you starting to get more and more customer or client interest in potential new development over the next three to five years? Like where are the kind of the new opportunity sets geographically starting to pop up where they haven't really been before?.
I'll turn that over to Armando..
Hi, Michael; it's Armando. Honestly, it's popping up everywhere. I know you're looking for something more specific. It's easy to say that there are many more opportunities outside the West and the Southwest U.S. than there were just a couple years ago, but I can't really point you to one specific place. We're seeing a lot of activity in the Southeast.
We're seeing actually a lot of activity in the Upper Midwest. And we're seeing a lot of activity up in the Northeast. So, all places that that we've been investing in probably for the last couple years in terms of land and interconnects and so on. I mean, places where we feel that we can enter into long-term off-take agreements also..
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated..
Thanks, Michael..
Our next question comes from Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead..
Hi. This is [indiscernible] on behalf of Michael Weinstein. Thanks for taking the questions.
Just on NextEra's $5 billion to $7 billion borrowing capacity, could you talk about if the Moody's recent sector downgrade has affected your view on the borrowing capacity?.
No. it has not..
And just as a follow-up, do you expect a breathing period as you integrate Gulf Power and FP&L gas into the core business, or when can we expect more M&A announcements going forward?.
Yes. It's going to be opportunistic, but again, Gulf will be run as a separate business from FPL..
And just a question on NextEra Energy Partners. The Canada asset sale closed a month ago. So how far are you along dropdown to recycle capital into the U.S.
assets? Is it kind a Q3 event or Q4 event? How should we think about that?.
I wouldn't want to specify or lock down a quarter, but obviously it's something that we continue to spend a significant amount of time evaluating, and we'll make further announcements coming forward..
Got it. And just one last question from me. On the solar safe harboring, how should we think about your ability to safe harbor like we have some guidance around wind, where you safe harbor multi-gigawatts of turbines to capture the tax credits.
Should we think about sort of in the same line or the same lines for NextEra Energy Resources?.
Yes. No, absolutely. I mean, we will engage in an active safe harbor program, just as we did for wind. And I think the fact that we have a strong balance sheet with significant capital resources is just one more competitive advantage as you think about the ability to actively exercise our position in the safe harbor program..
Thanks for taking the questions..
Our next question comes from Christopher Turnure with JPMorgan. Please go ahead..
Good morning, guys.
As the focus here recently has clearly shifted to the solar side of the business, I wanted to circle back on your latest thoughts on the wind market origination of non-repowered assets versus repowering itself and kind of how things are maybe trending versus your expectations a year ago on total number of megawatts, returns, capital deployment, et cetera..
So, you've – I mean, I think that's right. It seems like analysts and investors want to talk more about solar and storage than wind. But the fact is we're going to build – we're going to originate, and we're going to build a heck of a lot more wind from now through the end of the decade, through the end of 2020, than on the solar side.
I think what's happened on the solar side is exciting, especially when you see what prices are doing in 2020 and beyond. And the fact that there's been an extension of the investment tax credit through 2023, I think it's terrific for that market.
But the fact is that wind is still much cheaper than solar in many of the states up and down the Midwest, where utilities, munis, co-ops, and even the C&I sector is looking for cheap, long-term power output. And wind remains really our staple product in order to deliver to those folks that are looking for really low energy prices.
So, my expectation is that we're going to originate and we're going to build a lot of wind through 2020, and even as the PTC starts phasing down that you're going to see us build a lot of wind in the next decade..
Excellent. And then my only other question was a follow-up on the FPL rig amortization and the tax strategy there. I know the tax docket's open.
Can you give us a sense of the next steps to expect from you in that process?.
Yes. Again, I think the fact that we were able to apply our surplus against the Irma storm surcharge was a way to accelerate the return of tax savings back to Florida customers, and I think has been well-received. I think that strategy – I commend the FPL team for the thinking there.
And I think we're very well-positioned heading into hearings, which are going to occur in February 2019..
Great. Thank you..
Our next question comes from Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead..
Good morning. Congratulations on the strong quarter. John, can you provide -.
Thanks, Abe..
No problem.
Can you provide a bit more detail on the base revenue, cost management line item at FPL, and should we expect an uplift of that size in future quarters?.
Yes, so with regard to base revenues, we have benefited from stronger weather during the period. And from an O&M standpoint, I mean, that really rolls right into Project Accelerate, which we've talked a little bit about.
But all the opportunity that we have with Accelerate 1 with the $425 million of run rate savings on O&M, a good part of that being over at FPL, and then the Accelerate 2 initiatives that Jim described and the ability to not only leverage automation and looking at AI, looking at machine learning, looking at better, more cost-efficient ways to continue to run our business.
So, I would expect to continue to see very strong execution on O&M reductions for FPO going forward..
Great. Thanks. My other questions were answered already..
Thank you..
Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer & Company. Please go ahead..
Thanks so much.
Can you guys talk about lead times for energy storage sales and then also the pass-through of commodities from suppliers on those storage sales and how much exposure you have on that?.
So, your first question was lead time for storage sales. The lead time is actually fairly long. So, we're responding, we have been responding, and we continue to respond to requests for folks that are looking at – most of the requests, it's folks who are looking for storage products in the 2021 and 2022 time periods. So that doesn't surprise us.
That is a little longer, but not much longer than the sales time that you're seeing for solar, which has always been longer than wind. And the primary reason for that is the cost curve for storage and solar is dropping a little bit faster, not much faster, but a little bit faster than it is for wind. And folks are looking.
They're weighing the opportunity that they need, the storage, with the fact that price maybe a little cheaper if you just wait another year. So, we're having good results right now in the 2021 and 2022 time periods for both solar and storage.
And wind has always been a much nearer product, and we're responding primarily on wind with 2019 and 2020 opportunities..
And then the commodity exposure within the sale pricing?.
I think in the near term – so there's been certainly a lot of discussion about cobalt in particular, which is obviously in the chemistry of the batteries. And in the near term, there might be some cobalt price pressures and so on.
We're taking a little longer look in the next couple years simply because we expect a battery market, energy storage market, in the next couple years, but we really expect it to be something in the next decade.
And we continue to believe that all of these little blips – whether it's cobalt or some other chemistry – all of these little blips will get taken care of, and battery cost curves will just continue to come down..
Okay. And then just on the solar procurement side, obviously the safe harbor clarification – it hasn't been too long since that's come about.
But how much more procurement are you going to need to do to get your safe harbor volumes to the levels that you want over the next couple of quarters next year? Are you pretty much there at this point, or do you have a fair amount of contracting left to do?.
So, we'll have more to say on that as the year pans out and early next year. Obviously, we have time to figure out what our strategy is through 2023. So, I think it's a little early to determine exactly what our additional resource or CapEx needs are going to be.
But as John indicated a couple of minutes ago, we are in a terrific position to be able to take advantage of the safe harboring for solar, and we will take advantage of it. It's just a little early to talk about what that means..
All right. Perfect. Thanks, guys..
This concludes our question and answer session. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect..