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Consumer Cyclical - Auto - Recreational Vehicles - NYSE - US
$ 22.78
-0.87 %
$ 2.84 B
Market Cap
6.62
P/E
1. INTRINSIC VALUE

This DCF valuation model was last updated on Apr, 8, 2025.

The intrinsic value of one HOG stock under the worst case scenario is HIDDEN Compared to the current market price of 22.8 USD, Harley-Davidson, Inc. is HIDDEN

This DCF valuation model was last updated on Apr, 8, 2025.

The intrinsic value of one HOG stock under the base case scenario is HIDDEN Compared to the current market price of 22.8 USD, Harley-Davidson, Inc. is HIDDEN

This DCF valuation model was last updated on Apr, 8, 2025.

The intrinsic value of one HOG stock under the best case scenario is HIDDEN Compared to the current market price of 22.8 USD, Harley-Davidson, Inc. is HIDDEN

2. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Price Chart HOG

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$38.0$38.0$36.0$36.0$34.0$34.0$32.0$32.0$30.0$30.0$28.0$28.0$26.0$26.0$24.0$24.0$22.0$22.015 Oct15 OctNov '24Nov '2415 Nov15 NovDec '24Dec '2415 Dec15 DecJan '25Jan '2515 Jan15 JanFeb '25Feb '2515 Feb15 FebMar '25Mar '2515 Mar15 MarApr '25Apr '25
FINANCIALS
5.19 B REVENUE
-11.13%
417 M OPERATING INCOME
-46.52%
445 M NET INCOME
-37.00%
1.06 B OPERATING CASH FLOW
40.93%
-383 M INVESTING CASH FLOW
25.18%
-572 M FINANCING CASH FLOW
-227.70%
688 M REVENUE
-40.24%
-193 M OPERATING INCOME
-182.76%
-118 M NET INCOME
-99.49%
133 M OPERATING CASH FLOW
-62.27%
103 M INVESTING CASH FLOW
215.37%
-886 M FINANCING CASH FLOW
-673.79%
Balance Sheet Harley-Davidson, Inc.
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Current Assets 5 B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 1.59 B
Receivables 2.27 B
Other Current Assets 1.14 B
Non-Current Assets 6.88 B
Long-Term Investments 5.57 M
PP&E 821 M
Other Non-Current Assets 6.06 B
13.38 %19.07 %9.60 %6.91 %50.99 %Total Assets$11.9b
Current Liabilities 3.56 B
Accounts Payable 299 M
Short-Term Debt 2.54 B
Other Current Liabilities 720 M
Non-Current Liabilities 5.17 B
Long-Term Debt 47.4 M
Other Non-Current Liabilities 5.12 B
3.42 %29.11 %8.25 %58.67 %Total Liabilities$8.7b
EFFICIENCY
Earnings Waterfall Harley-Davidson, Inc.
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Revenue 5.19 B
Cost Of Revenue 3.38 B
Gross Profit 1.81 B
Operating Expenses 1.39 B
Operating Income 417 M
Other Expenses -28.5 M
Net Income 445 M
6b6b5b5b4b4b3b3b2b2b1b1b005b(3b)2b(1b)417m29m445mRevenueRevenueCost Of RevenueCost Of RevenueGross ProfitGross ProfitOperating ExpensesOperating ExpensesOperating IncomeOperating IncomeOther ExpensesOther ExpensesNet IncomeNet Income
RATIOS
34.88% GROSS MARGIN
34.88%
8.03% OPERATING MARGIN
8.03%
8.78% NET MARGIN
8.78%
58.88% ROE
58.88%
3.83% ROA
3.83%
3.30% ROIC
3.30%
FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
Free Cash Flow Analysis Harley-Davidson, Inc.
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1b1b1b1b800m800m600m600m400m400m200m200m0020162016201720172018201820192019202020202021202120222022202320232024202420252025
Net Income 445 M
Depreciation & Amortization 161 M
Capital Expenditures -197 M
Stock-Based Compensation 49 M
Change in Working Capital 98.5 M
Others 251 M
Free Cash Flow 867 M
3. WALL STREET ANALYSTS ESTIMATES
Wall Street Analysts Price Targets Harley-Davidson, Inc.
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Wall Street analysts predict an average 1-year price target for HOG of $42.7 , with forecasts ranging from a low of $39 to a high of $50 .
HOG Lowest Price Target Wall Street Target
39 USD 71.20%
HOG Average Price Target Wall Street Target
42.7 USD 87.51%
HOG Highest Price Target Wall Street Target
50 USD 119.49%
Price
Max Price Target
Min Price Target
Average Price Target
5050454540403535303025252020May '24May '24Jul '24Jul '24Aug '24Aug '24Oct '24Oct '24Nov '24Nov '2420252025Feb '25Feb '25Apr '25Apr '25Jun '25Jun '25Jul '25Jul '25Aug '25Aug '25Oct '25Oct '25Nov '25Nov '2520262026Feb '26Feb '26Apr '26Apr '26
4. DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
0.57% DIVIDEND YIELD
0.18 USD DIVIDEND PER SHARE
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.60001.60001.40001.40001.20001.20001.00001.00000.80000.80000.60000.60000.40000.40000.20000.20000.00000.00000.310.350.3650.370.3750.380.150.15750.1650.17250.180.310.350.3650.370.3750.150.15750.1650.17250.310.350.3650.370.3750.150.15750.1650.17250.311.240.351.400.3651.460.371.480.3751.500.440.150.600.15750.630.1650.660.17250.690.182015201520162016201720172018201820192019202020202021202120222022202320232024202420252025
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5. COMPETITION
6. Ownership
Insider Ownership Harley-Davidson, Inc.
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Sold
0-3 MONTHS
88.3 K USD 1
3-6 MONTHS
138 K USD 1
6-9 MONTHS
0 USD 0
9-12 MONTHS
0 USD 0
Bought
0 USD 0
0-3 MONTHS
0 USD 0
3-6 MONTHS
0 USD 0
6-9 MONTHS
0 USD 0
9-12 MONTHS
7. News
How tariffs will impact Harley-Davidson US President Donald Trump has made tariffs a central part of his second administration, fueling trade tensions with adversaries and allies alike. Morningstar senior equity analyst Jaime Katz joins Market Domination with Josh Lipton and Wall Street Horizon head of corporate event research Christine Short to discuss the impact of potential 50% retaliatory tariffs on Harley-Davidson (HOG) motorcycles imported from the US to the European Union. youtube.com - 1 week ago
Harley-Davidson Wants Payback if Europe Targets Its Bikes Tariffs could lift motorcycle prices to six figures in some countries. Sales are already under pressure in the hypercompetitive European market. wsj.com - 1 week ago
HOG Struggles as EU Tariffs Hit Amid Trade War and Declining Sales HarleyDavidson faces 56% EU tariffs amid a U.S.-EU trade war, increasing the company's struggles with already declining sales and rising production costs. zacks.com - 4 weeks ago
Motorcycles, whiskey, gum: How the E.U. is targeting U.S. products with retaliatory tariffs The European Union is planning new tariffs on a wide range of U.S. imports next month in response to President Donald Trump's new taxes on imported aluminum and steel that went into effect Wednesday. marketwatch.com - 4 weeks ago
Harley-Davidson, Inc. to Present at Citi's 2025 Global Consumer & Retail Conference MILWAUKEE , March 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. ("Company") (NYSE: HOG) announced today that it will present at Citi's 2025 Global Consumer & Retail Conference at the JW Marriott Miami Turnberry Resort & Spa in Aventura, Florida on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. Chief Financial Officer and President of Commercial Jonathan Root and Investor Relations Director Shawn Collins will present in one-on-one and group sessions and answer questions about the Company. prnewswire.com - 1 month ago
Harley-Davidson, Inc. to Present at Bank of America 2025 Consumer & Retail Conference MILWAUKEE , March 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. ("Company") (NYSE: HOG) announced today that it will present at the Bank of America Consumer & Retail Conference at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach in Miami, Florida on Wednesday, March 12, 2025. Chief Financial Officer and President of Commercial Jonathan Root and Investor Relations Director Shawn Collins will present in one-on-one and group sessions and answer questions about the Company. prnewswire.com - 1 month ago
Why Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) Down 4.7% Since Last Earnings Report? Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? zacks.com - 1 month ago
Harley-Davidson: Secular Decline And Market Share Deterioration Weaken Outlook Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s sales have declined over the long term. On top of a secular decline in the US, the brand's market share has deteriorated in both the US and Europe. The company's LiveWire brand isn't gaining customers, generating significant losses and showing little promise for a turnaround. Dealers' overstocked inventories are exacerbating Harley-Davidson's weak short-term financial performance. seekingalpha.com - 1 month ago
Why Harley-Davidson Motorcycles Are Called Hogs Ever wonder why Harley-Davidson motorcycles are called hogs? Bloomberg's Matt Miller dives into the unusual story of how the bikes got their nickname. youtube.com - 1 month ago
2 Stocks to Avoid in 2025 It's tough seeing well-known American brands struggle in the modern world. Harley-Davidson (HOG 0.19%) and Kraft Heinz (KHC 0.10%) are two companies you want to root for, but they are both facing challenges in today's economic climate. fool.com - 1 month ago
Harley-Davidson, Inc. To Present at Raymond James 46th Annual Institutional Investors Conference MILWAUKEE , Feb. 27, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. ("Company") (NYSE: HOG) announced today that it will present at the Raymond James 46th Annual Institutional Investors Conference at the JW Marriott Grande Lakes in Orlando, Florida on Wednesday, March 5, 2025, between 7:30 a.m. – 1:35 p.m. prnewswire.com - 1 month ago
What Would Be Involved in a Trump Economic Emergency Declaration? Key Points Much of mainstream news has tried to deride President Trump’s Economic Emergency Declaration, in an effort to derail his tariff strategy to halt drug smuggling and to level the international trade playing field. Little news has been devoted to President Trump’s rationale of US tariffs being reciprocal in matching those of other nation’s tariffs on US goods, which have been in other nations’ favor for decades. Deliberate media underreporting of an estimated $2.7 trillion of taxpayer dollars criminally misused and misappropriated by Congress and the national debt increasing by two trillion dollars annually give fuel and urgency to President Trump’s campaign promises to reduce a bloated federal government and rampant overspending, something that Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama also vowed to do, but failed. 4 million Americans are set to retire this year. If you want to join them, click here now to see if you’re behind, or ahead. It only takes a minute. (Sponsor) Border Enforcement and Interdiction of Drugs and Human Trafficking – A National Economic Emergency Several weeks ago, President Donald Trump declared a National Economic State of Emergency, with the intention to use tariffs and economic leverage to handle the issues at hand, as opposed to using military force. He cited both specific and across-the-board justifications, such as: The lack of border enforcement by the Canadian and Mexican governments in preventing illegal border crossings, frequently accompanied either by Fentanyl smuggling or human trafficking. Panama’s purported overcharging of fees to US ships and the presence of Chinese military forces in the Canal are direct violations of the US-Panama Canal Treaty neutrality clause. Despite mainstream media pundits and economic academics claiming that President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would “only hurt the US”, Mexico and Canada both capitulated and agreed to beef up border security, while Panama eliminated fees on US ships in the Canal for the next 12 months. The tariffs were suspended for 30 days pending verification of the promised actions. Fixing An Uneven Playing Field The EU’s exorbitant 56% tariff on Harley-Davidson motorcycles is one example justifying President Trump’s intent of reciprocal tariffs to level the playing field. Echoing the unfair Panama Canal fees on US ships, overcharging of tariffs on US goods by other countries has also prompted a policy of reciprocal tariffs from President Trump with the goal of leveling the international trade playing field. There are numerous examples: The EU charges a 56% tariff on US-made Harley Davidson motorcycles. The EU charges a 10% on US cars vs. 2.5% for the US on European cars. India charges an average 17% tariff on all US products vs. 3.3% for the US on Indian goods. Even the Council on Foreign Relations concurred with President Trump on the tariff imbalance: “The growing sense that others—especially big developing nations such as China and India—are not making similar commitments has certainly weakened U.S. public support for the global trading system. In the best possible outcome, Trump’s reciprocity initiative could open the door to negotiating long-overdue corrections to those discrepancies.” Trillions of Dollars Spent Fraudulently DOGE, led by Elon Musk, has been auditing various federal government agencies and departments and has found trillions of wasted and criminally misappropriated dollars that cannot be accounted for. Further giving credence to President Trump’s stance on a National Economic Emergency was reported by White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt that the GAO and the Elon Musk led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had identified $2.7 trillion of improper, and potentially criminal fraudulent payments made to a variety of domestic and overseas agencies, with many parties proven to be non-existent or illegal. Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO), recently addressed a House Subcommittee regarding wasteful spending and made a strong case for an economic emergency declaration, citing: Social Security was on track to go under in 8 years. Medicare was on track to become insolvent in 10 years. The US national debt has swollen to the point where it is accruing $2 trillion extra interest due annually, thus undermining the US dollar. In 15 years, the US dollar will become worthless, unless the nation drastically cuts spending and revamps its finances. Burlison applauded DOGE’s audit work in uncovering wasteful spending and its forensic work, which has shown that hundreds of millions of USAID funds went into the pockets of Middle Eastern terrorists, biolabs in China that may have originated Covid-19, and payoffs via DoD to media organizations like Reuters (invoiced as Large Scale Social Deception) for propaganda. Ironically, DOGE owes its origins not to President Trump and Elon Musk, but rather, to Barack Obama. It was created by Obama as the US Digital Service in 2014, renamed and repurposed as DOGE in January 2025. It was created by Obama as an IT oversight body, and as the renamed DOGE, it operates under 44 USC Chapter 35, which governs federal IT and cybersecurity oversight. Congress can’t defund it, as it was a preexisting program, and it operates under currently existing frameworks, so Democrat challenges will face standing issues. Given the disclosures of fiscal mismanagement being uncovered and reported on the DOGE website every day, the American citizenry is demanding reform, and the Trump Administration is supplying it. Since the majority of the big government programs being exposed for fraud are controlled by Democrats, their hand, being caught in the proverbial cookie jar, are resorting to accusations of President Trump acting like a dictator, and accuse him of trying to manipulate laws to stay in power past his 4-year term. If this was even remotely true, President Trump would be the first dictator to seize power by shrinking the government instead of expanding it. He won’t need to stay in power if President Trump’s reforms continue to garner such widespread voter support. Vice President J.D. Vance, Donald Trump Jr., and even Barron Trump might be nominated to continue the legacy. The post What Would Be Involved in a Trump Economic Emergency Declaration? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St.. https://247wallst.com - 1 month ago
8. Profile Summary

Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG

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COUNTRY US
INDUSTRY Auto - Recreational Vehicles
MARKET CAP $ 2.84 B
Dividend Yield 0.57%
Description Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Contact 3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, 53208 https://www.harley-davidson.com
IPO Date July 8, 1986
Employees 5900
Officers Mr. Mark R. Kornetzke Chief Accounting Officer Mr. Shawn Michael Collins Director of Investor Relations Mr. Sajeev Rajasekharan Managing Director of Asia Emerging Markets & India Ray Drea Chief Stylist, Vice President & Director of Styling Mr. Jonathan R. Root Chief Financial Officer & President of Commercial Mr. David Viney Vice President & Treasurer Ms. Tori Termaat Chief Human Resources Officer George Prassas Chief Communications Officer Mr. Jochen Zeitz Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Theo Keetell Vice President of Marketing