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Basic Materials - Aluminum - NYSE - US
$ 30.98
3.2 %
$ 8.02 B
Market Cap
18.27
P/E
1. INTRINSIC VALUE

This DCF valuation model was last updated on Jul, 21, 2025.

The intrinsic value of one AA stock under the worst case scenario is HIDDEN Compared to the current market price of 31 USD, Alcoa Corporation is HIDDEN

This DCF valuation model was last updated on Jul, 21, 2025.

The intrinsic value of one AA stock under the base case scenario is HIDDEN Compared to the current market price of 31 USD, Alcoa Corporation is HIDDEN

This DCF valuation model was last updated on Jul, 21, 2025.

The intrinsic value of one AA stock under the best case scenario is HIDDEN Compared to the current market price of 31 USD, Alcoa Corporation is HIDDEN

2. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Price Chart AA

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$38.0$38.0$36.0$36.0$34.0$34.0$32.0$32.0$30.0$30.0$28.0$28.0$26.0$26.0$24.0$24.0$22.0$22.0Feb '25Feb '2515 Feb15 FebMar '25Mar '2515 Mar15 MarApr '25Apr '2515 Apr15 AprMay '25May '2515 May15 MayJun '25Jun '2515 Jun15 JunJul '25Jul '2515 Jul15 Jul
FINANCIALS
11.9 B REVENUE
12.74%
828 M OPERATING INCOME
241.78%
60 M NET INCOME
109.22%
622 M OPERATING CASH FLOW
583.52%
-608 M INVESTING CASH FLOW
-3.93%
201 M FINANCING CASH FLOW
252.63%
3.02 B REVENUE
-10.42%
161 M OPERATING INCOME
-77.00%
164 M NET INCOME
0.00%
0 OPERATING CASH FLOW
0.00%
0 INVESTING CASH FLOW
100.00%
0 FINANCING CASH FLOW
0.00%
Balance Sheet Alcoa Corporation
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Current Assets 4.91 B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 1.14 B
Receivables 1.24 B
Other Current Assets 2.54 B
Non-Current Assets 9.15 B
Long-Term Investments 980 M
PP&E 6.39 B
Other Non-Current Assets 1.78 B
8.09 %8.81 %18.04 %6.97 %45.43 %12.66 %Total Assets$14.1b
Current Liabilities 3.4 B
Accounts Payable 1.8 B
Short-Term Debt 125 M
Other Current Liabilities 1.46 B
Non-Current Liabilities 5.51 B
Long-Term Debt 2.69 B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 2.82 B
20.26 %16.45 %30.23 %31.65 %Total Liabilities$8.9b
EFFICIENCY
Earnings Waterfall Alcoa Corporation
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Revenue 11.9 B
Cost Of Revenue 10 B
Gross Profit 1.85 B
Operating Expenses 1.02 B
Operating Income 828 M
Other Expenses 768 M
Net Income 60 M
12b12b10b10b8b8b6b6b4b4b2b2b0012b(10b)2b(1b)828m(768m)60mRevenueRevenueCost Of RevenueCost Of RevenueGross ProfitGross ProfitOperating ExpensesOperating ExpensesOperating IncomeOperating IncomeOther ExpensesOther ExpensesNet IncomeNet Income
RATIOS
15.56% GROSS MARGIN
15.56%
12.77% OPERATING MARGIN
12.77%
0.50% NET MARGIN
0.50%
1.16% ROE
1.16%
0.43% ROA
0.43%
1.17% ROIC
1.17%
FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
Free Cash Flow Analysis Alcoa Corporation
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1b1b800m800m600m600m400m400m200m200m00(200m)(200m)(400m)(400m)(600m)(600m)(800m)(800m)20162016201720172018201820192019202020202021202120222022202320232024202420252025
Net Income 60 M
Depreciation & Amortization 642 M
Capital Expenditures -580 M
Stock-Based Compensation 36 M
Change in Working Capital -515 M
Others -167 M
Free Cash Flow 42 M
3. WALL STREET ANALYSTS ESTIMATES
Wall Street Analysts Price Targets Alcoa Corporation
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Wall Street analysts predict an average 1-year price target for AA of $43.9 , with forecasts ranging from a low of $31 to a high of $52 .
AA Lowest Price Target Wall Street Target
31 USD 0.06%
AA Average Price Target Wall Street Target
43.9 USD 41.57%
AA Highest Price Target Wall Street Target
52 USD 67.85%
Price
Max Price Target
Min Price Target
Average Price Target
55555050454540403535303025252020Sep '24Sep '24Nov '24Nov '2420252025Feb '25Feb '25Apr '25Apr '25Jun '25Jun '25Jul '25Jul '25Aug '25Aug '25Oct '25Oct '25Nov '25Nov '2520262026Feb '26Feb '26Apr '26Apr '26Jun '26Jun '26Jul '26Jul '26
4. DIVIDEND ANALYSIS
0.34% DIVIDEND YIELD
0.1 USD DIVIDEND PER SHARE
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.450000.450000.400000.400000.350000.350000.300000.300000.250000.250000.200000.200000.150000.150000.100000.100000.050000.050000.000000.000000.072090.072090.10.10.10.10.072090.072090.10.10.10.10.072090.072090.10.10.10.072090.290.090.310.10.400.10.400.10.400.10.300.0020152015201620162021202120222022202320232024202420252025
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5. COMPETITION
slide 2 of 5
6. Ownership
Insider Ownership Alcoa Corporation
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Sold
0-3 MONTHS
0 USD 0
3-6 MONTHS
0 USD 0
6-9 MONTHS
1.01 M USD 1
9-12 MONTHS
0 USD 0
Bought
0 USD 0
0-3 MONTHS
0 USD 0
3-6 MONTHS
0 USD 0
6-9 MONTHS
0 USD 0
9-12 MONTHS
7. News
Boksburg Ventures Inc. Announces Name Change to Bighorn Metals Corp., Appoints Kostantinos Tsoutsis as Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Cornish as Corporate Secretary and Reno Calabrigo as a Director Vancouver, British Columbia – July 21, 2025 – TheNewswire - Boksburg Ventures Inc. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that, effective July 22, 2025, the Company will be changing its name from Boksburg Ventures Inc. to Bighorn Metals Corp.  (the “Name Change”) to better reflect its evolving business strategy and focus.   The new CUSIP number will be 08986A108 and the new ISIN number will be CA08986A1084. No action is required by existing shareholders of the Company with respect to the Name Change. Outstanding physical certificates or direct registration system (DRS) statements representing common shares of the Company do not need to be exchanged. thenewswire.com - 1 day ago
Alcoa: A Company Between Tariff Pressures And Asset Sales, Time To Wait And See Alcoa posted sharp sequential declines in EBITDA and Net Income for 2Q2025, deepening the significant uncertainty surrounding potential increases in U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports. Valuation multiples are attractive and debt is manageable, yet my DCF model shows the stock is trading near fair value with limited upside at current prices. The biggest risk is the unresolved US trade policy, which could squeeze margins and trigger a global recession, hurting aluminum demand and prices. seekingalpha.com - 4 days ago
Uber & Lucid deal, Alcoa & Novartis CEOs talk earnings Here is what you may have missed on Market Catalysts for Thursday, July 17. Uber and Lucid are partnering on a new robotaxi service. youtube.com - 5 days ago
Alcoa's Q2 Aluminum Earnings Top Estimates—But Tariff Risks Keeps Analyst Cautious In a market landscape marked by fluctuating commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainties, Alcoa Corporation‘s AA recent financial performance offers a glimpse into the evolving dynamics of the aluminum industry. benzinga.com - 5 days ago
Cyclical Rebound or False Start for These 3 Stocks? There is a lot of noise in the stock market, distracting investors from what really matters: the fundamentals. There is no use in trying to follow the sentiment and optimism when the S&P 500 index is trading near its all-time high levels, since this is typically where underlying drivers become more sensitive and vital, making it harder for portfolios to perform properly. marketbeat.com - 5 days ago
Alcoa: I'm Not Touching It, Even At 8x Earnings (Earnings Review) Alcoa's Q2 FY2025 results showed revenue beat, but significant EPS decline due to lower alumina prices and sharply higher U.S. Section 232 tariffs. The primary issue is the massive impact of U.S. tariffs, which are expected to surge from a $95 million cost in Q2 to $215 million in Q3. The doubling of Section 232 tariffs to 50% will likely cause margin leakage and demand disruptions, posing long-term threats to Alcoa's U.S. market share. seekingalpha.com - 5 days ago
Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 16, 2025 5:00 PM ET Company Participants Louis Langlois - Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO William F. seekingalpha.com - 6 days ago
Live Updates: Will Alcoa (NYSE: AA) Beat Earnings After the Bell? Live Updates Live Coverage Updates appear automatically as they are published. CEO Commentary and Updates 4:23 pm CEO Commentary: – William F. Oplinger: “In the second quarter of 2025, we continued our relentless execution on key objectives, which included progressing the sale of our interest in the joint venture with Ma’aden. We delivered on safety, stability, and operational performance in the quarter despite lower alumina and aluminum pricing.” Strategic Updates: -Alcoa completed the sale of its 25.1% interest in the Ma’aden joint venture for $1.35 billion, which is expected to result in a gain of approximately $780 million in Q3 2025. – The restart of the San Ciprián smelter has been paused due to a power outage, with expectations to resume by mid-2026. – Alcoa received a favorable decision regarding an Australian tax dispute, resulting in a refund of $69 million. Earnings out and stock up 1.89% 4:18 pm AA | Alcoa Corporation Q2’25 Earnings Highlights: • Adj. EPS: $0.39 ; DOWN -82% YoY • Revenue: $3.0B (Est. $3.4B) ; DOWN -10% YoY • Adj. Gross Margin: 10.4% ; DOWN -300 bps YoY • Net Income: $164M ; UP +720% YoY Q2’25 Outlook: • Revenue: $3.0B ±5% – Alcoa expects stable production and shipments in the Alumina segment, with total production projected between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons and shipments between 13.1 to 13.3 million metric tons. – The Aluminum segment’s production is expected to remain between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons, with a slight reduction in shipments due to delays in the San Ciprián smelter restart. Q2 Segment Performance: • Alumina Revenue: $843M ; DOWN -31% YoY • Aluminum Revenue: $1.956B ; UP +19% YoY Other Key Q2 Metrics: • Adj. Operating Income: $272M ; DOWN -68% YoY • Adj. Operating Expenses: $82M ; UP +19% YoY • R&D Expenses: $12M; DOWN -8% YoY • Free Cash Flow: $357M; UP +189% YoY • Effective Tax Rate: 6.2% (vs. 10.0% YoY) Alcoa Up in Late Trading 2:45 pm by Eric Bleeker We’re a little more than an hour away from the end of the trading day and Alcoa has rebounded to being up .6% on the day. The stock had dipped near noon along with the broader market. The day’s trading has been dominated by reports that Donald Trump was looking to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After Trump denied the reports stocks rebounded. Down 25% Year-to-Date 12:25 pm by Eric Bleeker Alcoa is down 25% year-to-date while other materials peers have performed relatively well. For example, Century Aluminum is up 8% year-to-date. Constellium SE is up 30%. That’s not to say that all materials stocks have done well, but Alcoa has also rebounded less from its decline that began during tariff rollouts than other comparable stocks. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reports earnings after the bell. The company’s stock is down 25% year-to-date headed into earnings, so the question on investors’ minds is whether today’s report can turn the slide around. We’ll be updating this live article after Alcoa’s earnings hit the wires shortly after 4 p.m. ET, so leave this page open if you want continuing analysis. What Wall Street Expects from Alcoa Here are the key figures to watch when Alcoa reports tonight. Any immediate movement in the company’s share price will likely come from three key factors: 1.) the company’s EPS last quarter relative to expectations 2.) revenue relative to expectations and 3.) Updates provided for Alcoa’s full-year guidance. Second Quarter Wall Street Expectations Revenue: $2.95 billion EPS (Normalized): $.39 EPS (GAAP): $.31 Gross Margin: 2.1% Cash from Operations: $354.2 million Full Year Wall Street Expectations Revenue: $12.74 billion EPS (Normalized): $3.35 Key Storylines To Watch Alcoa’s Q2 earnings have a few key storylines to watch if you’re invested in the company. Tariff Impacts: Look for adjusted EBITDA to be impacted by the U.S. Section 232 tariffs, with a projected unfavorable performance in the Aluminum segment of approximately $105 million due to increased tariff costs and operating expenses associated with the San Ciprián smelter restart. Revenue guidance: Alcoa expects to maintain strong performance in the Alumina segment, while the Aluminum segment may see a decline due to tariff impacts. What forward guidance and commentary Alcoa provides on its conference call will have a large impact on where the stock trades after-hours. Margins: Once again, tariffs are front and center. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will pressure profitability. This quarter will give additional insight into how Alcoa’s margins will be impacted by tariff uncertainty that can force companies to ‘eat’ unexpected costs. The post Live Updates: Will Alcoa (NYSE: AA) Beat Earnings After the Bell? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St.. https://247wallst.com - 6 days ago
Alcoa Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results PITTSBURGH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA; ASX: AAI) today reported results for the second quarter 2025 that reflect strong operational performance, and a sequential increase in cash despite lower prices for alumina and aluminum and increased tariff costs. Financial Results and Highlights M, except per share amounts 2Q25   1Q25   2Q24   Revenue $ 3,018   $ 3,369   $ 2,906   Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation $ 164   $ 548   $ 20   Income per share attributable to Alcoa. businesswire.com - 6 days ago
Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock? AA's Q2 results are likely to see Aluminum gains from rising demand and prices, but Alumina faces pressure from China's bauxite market strain. zacks.com - 1 week ago
Alcoa Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call Alcoa Corporation AA will release earnings results for the second quarter, after the closing bell on Wednesday, July 16. benzinga.com - 1 week ago
Great Basin Metals Inc. Announces Name Change and Results of Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - July 14, 2025) - Great Basin Metals Inc. (the "Company" or "Great Basin") is pleased to announce that it has changed its name from "Regal Resources Inc." to "Great Basin Metals Inc.") effective July 10, 2025. In connection with the name change, the Company has a new CUSIP and new ISIN number: 390130102 and CA3901301026. newsfilecorp.com - 1 week ago
8. Profile Summary

Alcoa Corporation AA

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COUNTRY US
INDUSTRY Aluminum
MARKET CAP $ 8.02 B
Dividend Yield 0.34%
Description Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Contact 201 Isabella Street, Pittsburgh, PA, 15212-5858 https://www.alcoa.com
IPO Date Nov. 1, 2016
Employees 13900
Officers Mr. Matthew T. Reed Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer Mr. Louis Langlois CPA Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets Mr. Renato Bacchi C.F.A. Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer Ms. Tammi A. Jones Executive Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer Ms. Molly S. Beerman Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Mr. Andrew J.A Hastings Executive Vice President & General Counsel Ms. Renee R. Henry Senior Vice President, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer Ms. Heather Hudak Senior Vice President of Tax Mr. William F. Oplinger President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yolande Doctor Director of Investor Relations