Hello, everyone, and welcome to The Carlyle Group Group Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to the Head of Investor Relations, Daniel Harris. Please proceed..

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Strategy, John Redett.

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call.

These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated.

Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time. In order to ensure participation by all those on the line today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups. With that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz..

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a very strong 2024, and I'm pleased to say delivered on each of our financial targets. Our record performance demonstrates our ability to mobilize across the firm and deliver long-term value. We generated over $1.1 billion of fee-related earnings, a near 30% increase over 2023.

We expanded our FRE margin to 46%, a 900 basis point year-over-year increase, inflows exceeded $40 billion that brings us to more than $100 billion of inflows over the last 2 years, and we returned more than $1 billion in capital to shareholders.

As I pushed my 2-year anniversary at Carlyle this week, I'd like to reflect on some of our key achievements. When I joined Carlyle, it was clear the firm had a proven investment track record, a leading global brand and iconic name and financial history. However, there was certainly some work to do.

Let me share some of the progress we made across our firm. We bolstered our leadership team through a combination of motions from within and hiring of external industry leaders. This group has quickly come together to mobilize our efforts around improving operations across the firm and delivering performance excellence.

We overhauled our compensation strategy, which improved alignment across all of our stakeholders. You, our shareholders, more of what you value most fees and our investment team's compensation is even more driven by performance.

We implemented a new capital allocation strategy with a $1.4 billion share repurchase authorization reflecting our strong belief that the share price is significantly undervalued. And most importantly, we have both strong momentum in areas we strategically identified for growth over the last 2 years, like Global Credit and insurance.

Global Investment Solutions, Global wealth and capital markets. Together, these businesses delivered 3-year revenue growth of approximately 40%. Let me underscore that again, together, these businesses delivered 2-year revenue growth of 40%. Now let me focus on our 2024 highlights.

First, Global Credit has remained our fastest-growing area over the past 5 years with revenues increasing 22% in 2024. This business has finished the year at $190 billion of assets under management. We closed our third opportunistic credit fund, which was 30% larger than the prior vintage.

We also completed a landmark Discovery transaction, one of the largest asset-backed finance transactions of the year. At $25 trillion globally, asset based and asset-backed finance is a massive addressable market, and we see significant opportunity to continue scaling this business. Moving on to capital markets.

This business was clearly subscale when I arrived 2 years ago. We made a number of changes to drive value in this business. We appointed a new Global Head of Capital Markets and revised our incentive program. As a result, we had a record year in transaction fees.

It's worth noting, this record result was achieved in a market environment well below peak activity levels. New areas like asset-backed finance, infrastructure and renewable energy are now all meaningful capital markets [indiscernible] contributors.

These areas accounted for nearly 40% of our capital markets revenue in 2024, up from single digits 2 years ago. In 2025, we expect continued growth in this area. Another priority has been broadening the scope of our Global Investment Solutions business. This year, solutions produced a 44% increase in fee revenue compared to the prior year.

This platform has broadened its product set, new areas like CAPM, [indiscernible] Global Wealth Evergreen Fund and our portfolio finance strategy are adding to the platform scale. As an example of this growth, we closed a $1 billion collateralized fund obligation in the fourth quarter. There are 2 things to note here.

One is that the design of this structure improved access to key AlpInvest funds for insurance clients. Two, this is the largest instrument of its kind of a raise. And of course, the core of this business continues to accelerate.

We're finalizing fundraising for our eighth vintage secondary fund, which is already substantially larger than its predecessor. 2024 was also a notable year for our Global Wealth business. We saw record inflows of $4.5 billion, and we expect to build on that success in 2025.

However, green wealth products saw a 65% step-up in AUM in 2024 to over $9 billion. There is strong demand across the globe for Carlyle solutions. We've added new distribution partners, and we expect our new private equity product to launch in the latter half of 2025. Now moving on to global private equity.

I want to highlight the performance of our 2 latest U.S. buyout funds. Performance of these 2 funds appreciated 15% and 21%, respectively, in 2024. That is more than $5 billion of value creation. It's a fantastic year for these 2 funds. Activity levels accelerated across our U.S. buyout franchise over the past year.

We took [indiscernible] public and 1 of the most successful IPOs of the year. We also invested capital into leading businesses like Vantiv, $4 million carve-out of a leading global [indiscernible] care business and well-packed $2 million carve-out of a leading automotive equipment provider.

We want to congratulate the team for driving value for all of our investors, these funds, our firm and our shareholders. It's really a great decision. Switching to real estate, our leading U.S. real estate franchise is finalizing its latest opportunistic fund. We expect this fund to close larger than its predecessor.

AUM in this business has increased more than 80% over the past 4 years, and the team has done an extraordinary job navigating the real estate mortgage, really impressive. Before I turn it over to John, let me give you some thoughts on the broader macro environment.

We have unique insights into the global economy through data from our investment portfolio and the indicators remain positive around economic growth and employment. This reinforces our perspective that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

This should spur new investment activity regardless of the amount of future monitor using by the Fed and other major central banks. Now with respect to new administration, our roots in D.C. are particularly helpful here. We have a long history of working through various cycles, administration and legislative priorities.

We have mobilized the team as we evaluate changes in policy and regulatory action. The new administration promotes a pro-growth and pro-business agenda, which broadly supports our portfolio and global economic activity.

On tariffs, and area getting a lot of attention, situation remains fluid, but the majority of our portfolio is either domestically focused or more services oriented versus goods, insulating it well from the impact of tariffs. Nearly 80% of our global private equity portfolio is U.S.-based.

And though it is early days, anticipate very manageable impact across the portfolio but continue to monitor closely, obviously. On regulation, we feel that the regulation will be an overall positive for all market participants and again, grow Growth Pro business.

In conclusion, we wrapped up a solid 2024, and we anticipate a strong year of investment activity realizations and fundraising in '25.

John will provide specific color on our 2025 outlook but all the work we've done in helping position Carlyle for continued long-term growth with all that we're confident that we can further build on our progress in the years ahead. With that, let me now turn the call over to John..

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. Let's start with our results. We generated $1.5 billion in DE for the year or $3.66 in DE per share. Fee-related earnings of $287 million in the fourth quarter and $1.1 billion for the full year were both records.

FRE increased nearly 30% in 2024, and our full year FRE margin of 46% increased nearly 900 basis points year-over-year. Clearly, we delivered on all of our 2024 financial targets. Notably, we delivered record FRE, while also investing for growth in key areas across our platform.

We increased the size of our global wealth distribution team by more than 1/3 this year, and the business itself caresses under management by 65%. In our asset-backed finance business, our team grew by nearly 30%. We will continue to scale platforms where we see significant opportunity for growth.

We had strong performance revenue and transaction fees, which more than doubled to $164 million. As Harvey mentioned, our capital markets business remains an important growth driver for Carlyle.

Our focus and investment in this area led to record levels of transaction fees in 2024, which we accomplished even as broader market activity levels remain well below that of prior years. While transaction fees may vary quarter-to-quarter, over time, we expect this earnings stream to continue to expand.

We saw a nearly 40% increase in Global Investment Solutions management fees and a 9% increase in global credit management fees, while global private equity declined 7%. We expect continued growth in Global Credit and Global Investment solutions in 2025 and and a more modest decline in global private equity.

We expect growth in private equity to resume as we progress through our next U.S. buyout fund raise. We also enter with $23 billion in pending fee-earning AUM across our platform, up nearly 50% year-over-year. The management fee contribution from activating this pending AUM is close to $200 million annually.

Our FRE cash compensation ratio improved to 36% in 2024. We down from 45% in the prior year. This improvement was a direct outcome of our strategic compensation realignment that we implemented last year as well as continued scaling of our platform. We are well on our way to achieving a compensation ratio of 35% or less.

Activity levels increased across the platform with strong inflows of more than $14 billion in the fourth quarter and nearly $41 billion for the year. This was our third best fundraising year ever. Deployment increased nearly 50% versus 2023 with Global Credit, corporate private equity and secondary showing the most acceleration.

With $84 billion in dry powder, we are well positioned for increased investment activity. In terms of exits, Corporate private equity realized proceeds nearly doubled from the prior year.

We completed 4 portfolio company sales in the fourth quarter and sold nearly $2 billion in public securities, including proceeds from the IPOs of Standard Aero in the U.S. in Rigaku in Japan. Additionally, there are several exits in process. And in U.S. buyout, our largest and most profitable fund strategy we created meaningful value for LPs in 2024.

We also distributed $5.3 billion in proceeds back to U.S. buyout investors throughout the year and generated nearly $600 million of net accrued performance revenues in our 2 most recent U.S. buyout funds. Moving on. Let me turn to our 2025 outlook.

We expect 2025 to be a year of growth and increased investment across our core businesses, including Global Wealth, Global Credit and Solutions. We expect FRE to increase 6% compared to 2024. However, we do see the potential for upside driven both by opportunities and market environment.

We expect 2025 FRE margin to be at a similar level to that of 2024. We will update you as we progress throughout the year. We expect inflows in 2025 to be similar to 2024 levels. Credit is once again poised to raise the most capital across our platform, and we have a diversified fundraising pipeline across all segments.

In closing, we entered 2025 with conviction in the direction of our overall platform. We will continue to invest into areas where we see the most opportunity to drive continued long-term shareholder value and we remain focused on delivering great investment outcomes for our investors.

Now let me turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions..

[Operator Instructions] And it from Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs..

Harvey. So I appreciate the guidance. Good color how you guys are thinking about 2025. I was hoping you would kind of pack that a little bit. So I heard your comments on growth in Credit and Solutions, offset by a more modest decline in Global Private Equity.

What are some of the bigger drivers in credit that you guys see for 2025 in solutions that will drive some of that growth? And as you think about the global private equity business, can you help us unpack perhaps the timing on when you expect to come back to market with the next selection plan? ..

Yes, Alex, it's John. Look, in terms of the 6% FRE growth, I would describe this as a base case for us. This is a number we have a high degree of confidence around. But I think importantly, it reflects us aggressively in [indiscernible] in businesses where we see Growth, Wealth, Credit, Solutions.

And we're much more focused on delivering long-term growth and investing in the business will enable us to deliver long-term growth. We are far more focused on the growth aspect of our business than delivering kind of short-term FRE. So you should understand that 6% in the context of us, we are investing aggressively in businesses where we see growth.

And what does that mean? You look at the head count increase we had in wealth last year is pretty significant. It will actually be north of that in 2025. We think head count will grow more than 50%. We're investing a lot of money in our asset-backed business, which we also did last year and our solutions business. We do see some upside to our 6% FRE.

And I think there are a lot of drivers of that, but I'll just highlight a couple wealth growth accelerates faster than we anticipate. I do think capital markets fees could be a positive surprise, and I think insurance flows, there are a lot of conversations going on in insurance. more conversations today than I've seen since I've been CFO.

So I do expect to see some insurance flows. That is a net positive. And I do think current growth could surprise us on the positive. So I think there are some upsides.

In terms of credit specifically, we're continuing to see good, very strong growth in our asset-backed business, as Harvey alluded to in his prepared remarks, this is a massive, massive market. You see stats all over the place, but let's just say it's $20-plus trillion. So I do think you'll see some growth in asset-backed.

We raised a significantly larger third credit opportunistic fund, it's up materially from the predecessor. And I do think our CLO business, we'll continue to see some headwinds in the front part of 2025, but I do think 2025 could be a positive surprise.

That team had an amazing 20 incredibly active after a couple of years of relatively limited activity. And the other big driver within credit, Alex, is CTech, which is our our retail wealth product in Credit. So feel very good about the trajectory of our credit business..

Is from the line of Stephen Shoback with Wolfe Research..

This is Brendan O'Brien filling in for Stephen. I guess, I just want to talk on the you guys were obviously really aggressive in repurchasing shares this year. But when you announced the authorization, Harvey, you indicated that you would expect repurchases to accelerate alongside realization activity.

And so given your more optimistic outlook for realizations, it would be helpful to get an update as to how you're thinking about capital return and whether you would still expect to accelerate the buyback and how you're thinking about the balance versus investing in some of the growth opportunities John just discussed and returning capital to shareholders..

Yes. So last year, we did -- we announced a $1.4 billion share repurchase program. In 2024, we repurchased roughly 12 million shares. So $550 million. So we have $850 million left on the authorization. We still view a stock buyback is a very attractive form of returning capital to our shareholders, you should assume we will be active in 2025.

I think it's also important to note, for the first time in Carlyle's public history, which is roughly 12 years, the last 2 years, we've actually shrunk our share count year-over-year, which I think is a is a real positive. But we will continue to evaluate capital allocation on the spectrum.

And how do I think about capital allocation? I can buy back stock. I can invest in our businesses for growth. and we can do M&A. I like returning capital to shareholders via the buyback. We will continue to do that. But we are also balancing that with aggressively investing in the business to deliver long-term growth.

But you should assume we still view our stock price as attractive and we will be repurchasing stock..

Our next question is from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research..

Hey, good morning, everyone. The negative mark in fee-paying assets under management was kind of outsized relative to the reported positive 3% mark.

So is that a reflection of a negative attitude mark and if so, is there a potential for you to move off of a mark-to-market fee based there like some others have?.

Yes. So I'll look at steering AUM and let's talk more about the fourth quarter versus the year. In the fourth quarter, look, you had -- you clearly had some realizations, which decrease that number, but realizations are good in our business in the sense we're giving capital back to our LPs like to see capital return.

So you did see some realization activity, certainly much more elevated relative to last year. But the fourth quarter, it had some noise.

And when I say noise, I mean, really kind of noneconomic impact and what would that be, we had a $6 billion mark-to-market in credit market activity, which is really the result of the movement in the 10-year at Fortitude. That really has no economic impact to the firm so that I would view that as noise.

And we also had $3 billion of excess -- FX movement in the quarter. So that's roughly $9 billion of really no financial impact to the firm. That's a lot of noise in the quarter. That would have hedged you up a bit. realization activities brought you down. But I think you should also focus in on we have $23 billion of pending fee-earning AUM.

That's up 50% compared to the prior year. That will turn on throughout the year, and that's roughly $200 million of annual run rate revenue. But again, a lot of noise in the fourth quarter fee earning AUM..

One moment for our next question and is from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank..

Great. Maybe just to talk about maybe G&A expense a little bit. And maybe if you could just comment a little bit on the increase in the fourth quarter. And then thinking about the investment, for 2025 and some of the businesses.

Maybe if you can talk about maybe the 2 or 3 biggest areas that I think you cited retail and the asset-backed business as well. But if you can comment on how you're thinking initially about G&A expenses during the year. And are you still investing in the capital markets platform? Or do you see the incremental margins there.

The investment is mostly being complete and the incremental margins, therefore, being much higher in the cap markets?.

It's John. And thanks for the question. I'll start with the G&A question. Look, I'd say overall, we're focused on running the firm efficiently, and I think it shows. G&A expense in 2020 it was up 2%. G&A expense in 2024 was up 4%. So I think those are pretty good numbers in terms of running the firm efficiently.

We expected fourth quarter G&A expense to be elevated. There's some seasonality in that elevation of G&A expense in the fourth quarter. And if you go back and look at our G&A numbers the last 3 or 4 years. The fourth quarter is always a little bit elevated relative to the previous 3 quarters.

But we also we had some one-off items in the fourth quarter this year. We had some fundraising expenses in the fourth quarter that were related to some direct lending money we raised and our Japan buyout fund raise, which was super successful. And those are -- I would not describe those as as recurring.

And we had some unfavorable FX impact, which that kind of moves up and down over time. So I don't look at the fourth quarter -- and I don't draw any kind of operating trend conclusions from the elevated fourth quarter level. I think we've done a good job of kind of controlling G&A expense into the 2% to 4%.

In terms of kind of looking forward, in terms of the FRE guidance we provided, I do see Q1 being more similar to Q4 this year. And then I think throughout the year, you'll see an acceleration in that FRE growth. The other part of your question, Dan, is where are we investing the money? And I alluded to a little bit of it in my prepared remarks.

We are clearly investing in wealth, and that's largely headcount. That head count will be up 50% at least in 2025. We're investing in credit. We see very strong growth in credit. We expect that trajectory to continue.

You look at our Solutions business, it grew organically 40-plus percent this year that's going to require some investment, which is really great to see. And in Japan, our Japan buyout had tremendous success raising money, and we need to invest some more money there.

So I would say -- I would describe the way we're thinking about aggressively investing is we're investing in businesses where we see growth in businesses, quite frankly, where growth is less evident in the near term, we're not making investments..

One moment for our next question and it comes from the line of Brian Mckenna with Citizens JMP..

So I had a question on the BDC merger. Can you remind us what the incremental fees are to CG post-merger and why those will turn on. And then that vehicle will have north of $2 billion of assets.

So how should we think about growth of the combined BDC as well as the broader direct lending platform moving forward?.

Yes. So we haven't disclosed the impact. It will be a positive impact to management fees and FRE. I wouldn't describe it as a material impact to our credit business, but it's a positive. It's good to see that BDC merger will close late in Q1, early Q2, everything is on track in terms of the BDC.

Look, in terms of direct lending, we actually had pretty good growth in 2024. That's an area where I actually didn't touch on in terms of where we're investing but we are investing in our direct lending business. Performance has been really strong, and we are investing in that business as well.

But look, when you look at our direct lending business, relative to some of our peers, we don't have quite the scale our peers do. So I really view that as upside.

There's no reason why with a brand like Carlyle, our direct lending business is not significantly larger than it is today, and we're making investments in that area of credit to make it a more scaled business..

Our next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI..

Two quick follow-ups to your earlier. In asset-backed line, I'm just curious if you have dedicated strategies being formed yet? Or is this efforts within your insurance SMEs and Credit -- overall Credit business? And then on Investment Solutions, I think your performance has been great.

I'm just curious how you see the evolution and growth in perpetual products in that area and how that might impact growth and returns in in the Solutions business going forward. ..

Glenn, on Asia, obviously, the asset-backed market, which we highlighted as a large addressable market, and it's a market that's in evolution, which is the convergence of the demand for capital from end users and obviously, a lot of what's happening across the globe in terms of insurance capital coming in.

So it kind of really hits a sweet spot for us. in terms of growth. There's a dedicated fund being raised. But of course, we've built this off of our affiliate partnership with Fortitude. So we've been doing this for a number of years. And so as John mentioned, we also invested heavily in the team last year and will continue to grow.

In terms of the solutions business, 1 of our fastest areas of growth, both institutionally and across wealth and you'll see us during the course of the year, continue to expand partnerships and some of those are significant partnerships, but we can't speak to them specifically to say, but that's our expectation.

So again, a lot happening in that space. And the performance and the trend and the breadth is pretty impressive..

One moment for our next question and it's from the line of Ben Budish with Barclays..

John, I was wondering if you can talk John, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your comp ratio expectations for the year. You said on the way to 35% or less.

Just curious, what are the other key factors that determine the timing? I imagine some of this is related to realizations, but what's sort of embedded in your expectations for the 6% FRE guide? ..

Yes. So there is obviously a large component of that, Ben, is realizations in net realized performance revenues. And look, we had a really strong 2024 in terms of realizations, and I do think as some of these funds where we're seeing realizations hit carry, you're going to see an acceleration for us in terms of net realized performance revenues.

So that will be a positive. Look, we gave a 30% to 35% range in February of 2023. I knew it would take us a couple of years to get to that range. We got to a number last year, better than I anticipated, 36%. I think 35% is imminently doable, but we'll get there -- we'll get there naturally.

I mean -- I do need net realized performance revenues, and we will rely on that versus versus thinking about like cutting expenses. We're much more focused on growth. But we'll grow into that number, and we'll benefit from net realized performance revenues..

Our next question is from Dan Fannon with Jefferies. ..

So a couple of questions on Global Credit. Curious as to why the management fees declined sequentially in the fourth quarter and then obviously, a very large transaction fee. You talked about investing in that business in scaling.

So can you talk about the sustainability an outlook for transaction fees in that segment within Global Credit?.

Yes. So yes, we actually just put the capital market transaction fees in the credit business. It's really spread the fees are generated across the platform. So 3 years ago, that was a largely private equity-related earnings stream. Today, it's far more diversified.

It's across credit, and it's across infrastructure and it's across corporate private equity, but we report that segment largely in credit. So think of it more as something that we generate across the platform. But in terms of trajectory of credit, we feel very good. We have a lot of the businesses.

Every business in credit is growing with the exception of the CLO business. In the CLO business, we had a little bit of market headwinds as a result of 2023 -- 2022 and 2023, where you just had no activity. And we made up for that this year. We had a tremendous level activity. But management fees in that business were down an immaterial amount.

But the rest of credit is growing, and we feel exceptionally good about the trajectory of [indiscernible] forward..

Moment for our next question, please. And it comes from the line of Bill Katz with TD Cowen..

John, sorry, sorry to go back on this, but I'm just trying to unpack your comments about the fee-paying AUM dynamics in the quarter. You mentioned they should have no economic impact, but I'm just trying to understand that since it's a fee-paying AUM discussion.

Can you just sort of walk me through again why the $6 billion decline in fee paying AUM will not have an economic impact looking ahead?.

Yes. So it will have a very minor economic impact in the sense, the way the agreement with Fortitude works is we get paid on the level of assets. And there's -- this resulted in immaterial decline in those assets, but the impact to 2025 is literally a couple of million dollars. So it's largely in my book, it's immaterial. ..

Okay.

So it's more the fee rate associated with those assets at play?.

The fee rate is not impacted by the market activity..

Our next question is from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan..

You have $500 million of net accrued carry in CP 7. The fund is still hovering around 8% IRR given the investments in the ground and some of the recent, I'll call it, successful partial realizations. How confident are you that 7 can remain above the hurdle rate and collect that accrued carry.

And then along the same lines, Cap 5 and SEP 5 IRRs fell a bit during the quarter.

Can you talk about sort of marks and exits and how those weighed on this quarter's results for those funds?.

Ken, it's John. Look, I feel very good about the progress we're making in our U.S. private equity business. Harvey referenced the appreciation and our 2 most recent buyout funds 15 -- 20%. I think it was a great year. The value creation in that business was $5 billion. So we're moving in the right direction.

Specifically on CP 7, I would say we're very pleased with the performance in CP 7. It's improved dramatically over the last 12 months. And looking forward, we feel very good that, that trajectory will continue. Carry is just not as simple as overall performance level within the fund. It's also a function of how much money we've returned to LPs.

But we are confident that, that fund will hit carry..

And then CAP and [indiscernible]..

Yes. I mean, look, CAP is a fantastic business. We had really good appreciation in that franchise.

Most of the movement down in terms of performance was largely attributable to our public equities we hold there's in public equities period all over the globe, but there's been more pronounced volatility in public equities in China, and that really drove a lot of the movement down..

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Cyprus with Morgan Stanley..

Just wanted to ask about global private equity. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about how you expect the pace and magnitude of deployment and realization activity to evolve here in 2025 in the context of at times volatile markets, higher ten-year treasury yields over the last 6 months, some uncertainty around tariffs.

How do you expect to use and other factors to play into getting deals done? And how you see that cadence of activity playing out in terms of the first half versus second half of the year?.

Yes, I would say we still are positive leaning in terms of activity. I think when you look at M&A volumes, last year they were up kind of 20%. IPO volumes were up 50%, 60%. You saw us capitalize on the IPO markets opening with Standard Aero, which was a very successful IPO of Rigaku in Japan. So I think that's a positive. Those markets are opening up.

Look, base rates are up. They're up relative to 3 years ago, no doubt, but spreads spreads remain tight. You're all-in financing costs, quite frankly, is still very attractive. Debt markets are pretty much wide open. So I think that's another positive, and I think the other real positive is strategic buyers have become active again.

And that is another positive catalyst. So when you look at what you need to have a conducive market to buy and sell assets, it's largely in place with what we're seeing. So we're very optimistic that 2025 will be a busy, busy year on the realization front..

Our next question is from the line of Kyle Voigt with KBW..

Maybe just another follow-up on GPE. You mentioned some continued decline in management fees there until you raised your next U.S. buyout fund. Just wondering if you could help us understand when you expect to begin fundraising when we could expect a potential activation given the pace of deployment you're seeing in CP 8.

I'm assuming it's 2026, but if you could maybe narrow that down at all. Then how should we think about the size of CP 9 relative to CP 8 at $14.8 billion, particularly given the private equity fundraising backdrop..

Yes. So as I said in my remarks, GPE -- Global Private Equity was down roughly 7% in 2024. And I also said we expect the rate of that decline to be meaningfully lower in 2025 than it was in 2024. So I think that's a positive. We anticipate launching the most recent U.S. buyout fund towards the back end of 2025 this year.

And I can't really comment on the size, but we should be in the market in 2025, and you will see a fee activation at some point in 2026, which will be the catalyst to see our corporate private equity business return to a more positive trajectory. ..

One moment to your next question. It comes from the line of Mike Brown with Wells Fargo..

Okay. Great. So I wanted to just unpack the targets a little bit more. So the fundraising target. John, you shared some up comments on credit and also Fortitude.

So I just wanted to clarify, does the $40 billion or I guess, roughly kind of flat year-over-year, does that assume any contribution from from potential blocks that could come from Fortitude or would that be kind of in the upside bucket that you referred to? And then just on the management fees for -- within your FRE guidance -- you talked about the positive tailwinds for transaction fees and included there for FRPR.

So just in total, how should we think about that management fee growth potential relative to the 6% FRE growth..

Yes. So in terms of the Fortitude part of your question, that is not in our FRE 6% guidance. I would view any type of inflows into Fortitude to be additive to that growth rate we provided. So again, it's not in our base case. Look, in terms of management fee, growth. Again, I would unpack it via looking at the 3 businesses.

We have very strong management fee growth looking forward in solutions. Look, it's not going to remain at the 45% level in perpetuity. That was obviously a blowout year, but we do expect strong growth going forward. We had very good growth in Credit. We expect that to continue.

Again, the only area where we're really seeing any headwinds is within our Corporate Private Equity business. And again, that was down 7% in 2024, we think that decline will be significantly less in 2025, and we do see a path to that resuming a positive trajectory based on some fundraising in our most recent -- in our U.S.

buyout fund, which we'll launch this year. ..

And our final question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research. ..

Thanks for the follow-up. Hello you hear me? ..

Yes. Yes..

Just 1 more quick follow-up on that through the lens of your kind of broader realization commentary. I assume the 6% FRE growth is partially informed by a view that, that will be a meaningful pickup in realizations in 2025.

Could you give any more color around how you're thinking about that side of the FRE growth equation?.

Yes. I would not describe our forecast in our 6% FRE growth as our base case is assuming there's a substantial increase in realization activity, we do think realization activity levels will increase relative to 2024, but I would not describe our assumption in terms of how we thought about the 6% FRE growth to be a substantial pickup in realizations.

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And with that, I will turn the call back to Dan Harris for final comments..

Yes. Thank you for your time and interest in Carlyle today. Should you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. ..

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect..