Ventas, Inc.
$78.45
-2.1%Ventas, an S&P 500 company, operates at the intersection of two powerful and dynamic industries: healthcare and real estate. As one of the world's foremost Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT), we use the power of capital to unlock the value of real estate, partnering with leading care providers, developers, research and medical institutions, innovators and healthcare organizations whose success is buoyed by the demographic tailwind of an aging population. For more than twenty years, Ventas has followed a successful strategy that endures: combining a high-quality diversified portfolio of properties and capital sources to manage through cycles, working with industry leading partners, and a collaborative and experienced team focused on producing consistent growing cash flows and superior returns on a strong balance sheet, ultimately rewarding Ventas shareholders. As of September 30, 2020, Ventas owned or managed through unconsolidated joint ventures approximately 1,200 properties.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 142.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 142.7, earnings yield +0.7%, momentum -2.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.0%, ROIC +3.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +4.3%, ROE +2.0%, ROIC +3.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +54.4%, momentum -2.1%, net margin +4.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Ventas, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Ventas, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Ventas, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Critical situation: Negative gross margins indicate fundamental business model issues. The company loses money on every sale—immediate strategic changes required.
Ventas, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Ventas, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
Ventas, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that VTR stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 96.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 88.00 to a high of 110.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 96.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 88.00 to a high of 110.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Ventas, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $56.90M worth of VTR shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
1.2K
103.92K
-104K
-$104K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
96.4K
7.78M
-7.8M
-$7.78M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
410.4K
30.73M
-30.7M
-$30.73M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
276.8K
18.28M
-18.3M
-$18.28M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Cafaro Debra A
Director, Officer: Chairman And Ceo
$32.23M
Probst Robert F
Officer: Evp And Cfo
$20.42M
Roberts Carey S.
Officer: Evp And Gc
$3.02M
Bulgarelli Peter J.
Officer: Evp Om&R-Ventas/Pres&Ceo-Lhs
$1.13M
Rakowich Walter C
Director
$104K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $56.90M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
vtr Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on VTR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.