Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
$85.50
-5.7%Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership and related products. It operates through two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company manages vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Residence Club, and Marriott Vacation Club Pulse brands. It also develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership and related products under The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club brand; and holds right to develop, market, and sell ownership residential products under The Ritz-Carlton Residences brand. In addition, the company offers exchange networks and membership programs, as well as provision of management services to other resorts and lodging properties through various brands, including Interval International, Trading Places International, Vacation Resorts International, and Aqua-Aston. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated approximately 120 properties in the United States and thirteen other countries and territories. The company sells its upscale tier vacation ownership products primarily through a network of resort-based sales centers and off-site sales locations. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -9.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E -9.7, earnings yield N/A, momentum -5.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -15.4%, ROIC +5.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin -6.1%, ROE -15.4%, ROIC +5.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +79.6%, momentum -5.7%, net margin -6.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Non-operating losses: Core business is profitable but other expenses (interest, taxes, one-time items) are driving net losses. Review capital structure and non-operating items.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that VAC stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 90.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 50.00 to a high of 105.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 90.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 50.00 to a high of 105.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $57.17M worth of VAC shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
200
13.67K
0
0.00
+14K
+$14K
3-6 Months
95
5.80K
0
0.00
+6K
+$6K
6-9 Months
133.1K
6.28M
0
0.00
+6.3M
+$6.28M
9-12 Months
750.0K
50.87M
0
0.00
+50.9M
+$50.87M
Top Buyers
Asmar Christian
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$54.86M
Shaw William Joseph
Director
$921K
Andrews Charles Elliott
Director
$470K
Galbreath Lizanne
Director
$256K
Mccarten William W
Director
$240K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $57.17M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
vac Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on VAC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.