UPS - NYSE

Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your facilitator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to the UPS Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll cover 3 areas, starting with our third quarter results. Next, I'll discuss progress with the Amazon volume glide down and our network reconfiguration and cost-out efforts. Then I'll close with our expectations for the fourth quarter and capital allocation for the full year. Moving to our results. Starting with our consolidated performance. In the third quarter, revenue was $21.4 billion and operating profit was $2.1 billion. Consolidated operating margin was 10%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.74. $0.30 of EPS came from a sale-leaseback transaction involving 5 properties completed in the third quarter, which resulted in a $330 million pretax gain on sale. This transaction was part of a broader strategy aimed at freeing up capital for reinvestment as we reconfigure our network. The leases are structured to maintain operational continuity for our business. And as a result, we have not adjusted this gain on sale in our non-GAAP presentation. Now moving to our segment performance, starting with U.S. Domestic. In the third quarter, we continued to improve the mix of volume in our network and our disciplined approach to revenue quality meaningfully offset the impact lower volume had on revenue. Additionally, the team did an excellent job managing expense throughout the quarter, resulting in an improvement in U.S. domestic operating margin. For the quarter, total U.S. average daily volume was down 12.3%, primarily due to the glide down of Amazon volume and our focus on improving revenue quality. Total air average daily volume was down 13.9%, mainly due to Amazon. Health care and high-tech customers both showed growth in air average daily volume in the third quarter, which was the third consecutive quarter of positive momentum from these key industries. Ground average daily volume was down 12% year-over-year. Within Ground, Ground Saver ADV declined 32.7% due primarily to the actions we've taken with Amazon and to trim lower-yielding e-commerce volume. As a result, our more premium ground commercial and residential services made up over 84% of our total ground average daily volume in the third quarter. That's the highest percentage we've seen in more than 5 years. Now moving to customer mix. SMB average daily volume was down 2.2% versus last year. However, we continue to see bright spots in SMB health care and automotive as well as growth from DAP, our digital access program. In the third quarter, SMBs made up 32.8% of total U.S. volume, which is about a 340 basis point improvement compared to last year. In the third quarter, B2B average daily volume finished down 4.8% compared to last year due to softness in retail and in manufacturing activity. B2B represented 45.2% of our U.S. volume, which was a 350 basis point improvement versus last year. B2C average daily volume was down 17.6% year-over-year. Moving to revenue. For the third quarter, U.S. domestic generated revenue of $14.2 billion, which was down just 2.6% year-over-year against an ADV decline of 12.3%. Our revenue performance reflects strong growth in revenue per piece and air cargo. In the third quarter, revenue per piece increased 9.8% year-over-year, which was the strongest revenue per piece growth rate we've seen in 3 years. Breaking down the components of the 9.8% revenue per piece improvement, base rates and package characteristics increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 350 basis points. Customer and product mix improvements increased the revenue per piece growth rate by 400 basis points. The remaining 230 basis point increase was from fuel. Turning to costs. In the third quarter, total expense in U.S. domestic was down 2.7%. The decline in total expense was primarily driven by our actions to reduce hours and operational positions with volume. Looking at cost per piece, we were up against a tough comparison from last year. This comparison, together with the costs associated with delivering Ground Saver volume and the contractual union wage increase that went into effect on August 1, resulted in a cost per piece increase of 10.4%. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered $905 million in operating profit and operating margin was 6.4%. Moving to our International segment. Through ongoing shifts in trade patterns spurred by changes in U.S. trade policy, we are continuing to operate our global network with agility to serve our customers. As a result, in the third quarter, International delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of growth in average daily volume and revenue. In the third quarter, total international ADV increased 4.8%, led by Europe and the Americas regions. International domestic average daily volume increased 3.6% compared to last year, led by Canada. On the export side, average daily volume increased 5.9% year-over-year, driven by the agility of our network to adjust to changing trade lanes and led by strength between European countries. As the third quarter played out, we saw a decline in U.S. imports, led by an ADV decline on the China to U.S. lane of 27.1%. Turning to revenue. In the third quarter, international revenue was $4.7 billion, up 5.9% from last year. Operating profit in the International segment was $691 million, down $101 million year-over-year, reflecting pressures from trade lane shifts, product trade down and lower demand-related surcharges. International operating margin in the third quarter was 14.8%. Moving to Supply Chain Solutions. In the third quarter, revenue was $2.5 billion, lower than last year by $715 million, of which $465 million was due to our divestiture of Coyote in the third quarter of 2024. Within Supply Chain Solutions, demand softness in Air and Ocean Forwarding resulted in lower market rates, which drove a decline in revenue year-over-year. Logistics revenue was down year-over-year, driven by a decline in Mail Innovation. This was partially offset by revenue growth in Healthcare Logistics. And UPS Digital, which includes Roadie and Happy Returns, grew revenue by 9.5% year-over-year. In the third quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated operating profit of $536 million. Operating margin was 21.3%. Our results in Supply Chain Solutions this quarter include the impact of the sale-leaseback transaction, which generated the $330 million one-time gain that I mentioned earlier. Turning to cash and shareowner returns. Year-to-date, we generated $5.1 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow of $2.7 billion. We finished the quarter with strong liquidity and no outstanding commercial paper. And so far this year, UPS has paid $4 billion in dividends. Now let me provide an update on our cost out and network reconfiguration efforts. In conjunction with our actions to significantly reduce the amount of Amazon volume in our network, we are executing the largest network reconfiguration in our history and will remove approximately $3.5 billion in related costs this year. We've made a lot of progress since our last earnings call. Let me walk you through the details. Total Amazon volume was down 21.2% compared to the third quarter of last year. We achieved our reduction target in the portions of the Amazon volume we are exiting, and we grew the portions of Amazon volume that we are continuing to serve. Now let's look at the savings we've generated so far this year. As a reminder, we are tracking our savings within 3 cost buckets. They are variable costs, which primarily captures operational hours, semi-variable costs, which reflects operational positions and fixed costs, which includes closing buildings and reducing expense from support functions through our efficiency reimagined initiative. Looking at variable costs. Total operational hours continue to move down with volume. So far this year, we are down more than 16 million hours, and we are on track to reach our reduction target of approximately 25 million hours for the year. Moving to semi-variable costs. Attrition and operational positions accelerated each month during the quarter, and we finished down nearly 34,000 positions year-over-year, which includes a reduction from our driver voluntary separation program. Nearly 1/3 of the reductions occurred in September. In our fixed cost bucket, year-to-date, we have completed the closure of 195 operations, including closing 93 buildings. As we are closing buildings, we are also investing through our Network of the Future efforts. And as Carol mentioned, we've deployed additional automation in 35 facilities. And while we expect to be busy processing volume during peak, we also plan to deploy automation projects in 7 additional buildings in December. Lastly, savings from our efficiency reimagined initiatives continued to accelerate in the third quarter. Pulling it all together, we are making meaningful progress executing our strategy. So far this year, we've reduced expense by $2.2 billion, and we're on track to achieve our 2025 expense reduction target of approximately $3.5 billion. Now moving to our outlook. At the consolidated level, we expect fourth quarter revenue of approximately $24 billion and an operating margin of approximately 11% to 11.5%. Looking at the segments in the fourth quarter. Starting with U.S. Domestic, we expect revenue to be around $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter, driven by the continued volume reduction with Amazon and strong revenue per piece growth. And we expect an operating margin of approximately 9.5% to 10%. In terms of peak, in the U.S., we expect heavier volume earlier in the peak period, and we have 1 additional delivery day compared to last year, which gives us more flexibility. The network reconfiguration and additional automation we deployed through Network of the Future set us up to deliver a more efficient peak and another year of industry-leading service for our customers. In short, we're ready for peak. Turning to International. We expect the dynamic environment we've experienced throughout the year will continue. With this in mind, we expect fourth quarter revenue to be approximately $5 billion, and we expect an operating margin of between 17% and 18%. In Supply Chain Solutions, we expect revenue in the fourth quarter of around $2.7 billion and an operating margin of approximately 9%. Looking at capital allocation for the full year, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $3.5 billion. We are planning to pay out around $5.5 billion in dividends, subject to Board approval, and we have completed the targeted share repurchase of about $1 billion of our shares. Lastly, we expect the tax rate to be approximately 23.75% for the full year 2025. Before I close, let me comment on our financial condition. UPS is rock solid strong, and we have plenty of liquidity to continue executing our strategy and return value to our shareowners. And following the completion of our acquisition of Andlauer, we expect to end the year with around $5 billion in cash. So with that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Chris Wetherbee from Wells Fargo.

Maybe we can start on domestic margins. So obviously, some improvement, but we had a lot of RPP growth in the quarter. So I guess as we think forward, I know there's a mix of cost as well as yield management that we're going to see. And I know you've given us some ranges for the fourth quarter. But generally speaking, where you think you are in the glide down, can you give us a little sense of maybe what we can start to think about for 2026 from a domestic margin perspective?

Thanks, Chris. I appreciate it. And look, I think we're very pleased with both the revenue quality we saw in the third quarter as well as the progress that we're making with the Amazon glide down, and we laid out the activity metrics around that. On 2026, look, we'll update 2026 on the January call when we report fourth quarter. But there are a few things that I think are worth kind of keeping in mind. Remember, we're 3 quarters into a 6-quarter drawdown. So as we lap the year, we kind of come through the first 3 quarters of this year, we will see a sequential increase in Amazon volume as we go into peak because everybody peaks. And then we'll continue to draw down as we go through the first half of next year and the cost takeout will continue as we go through that. The second is, as Carol mentioned, we're taking strategic actions around Ground Saver that will start to take hold next year, and we'll see economic benefit in the back half of next year for that as well. We do anticipate closing Andlauer in November of this year, and we'll update you on the financials as we wrap that into next year, but that's an exciting acquisition to accelerate our health care strategy. And look, we're continuing to focus on growing in the parts of the market that will help us continue to drive revenue per piece growth as well as higher margins as we go into the back half of '26 and complete the Amazon glide down.

Our next question comes from the line of David Vernon from Bernstein.

So Brian, can you talk a little bit about the exit rate on cost per piece coming out of the third quarter? It seems like this was kind of an inflection quarter where with the buyout and everything else, you probably came out a little bit better than you started and whether we should expect that to accelerate into 4Q? And then it sounds like you guys are saying you found a way to work with the USPS on Final Mile for some of the residential lower rate e-commerce type of stuff. Can you kind of be more specific in terms of what that looks like and how that changes cost per piece?

Our next question comes from the line of Todd Wadewitz from UBS.

Our next question comes from the line of Ari Rosa from Citigroup.

So it was really nice to see the step-up in free cash flow. Carol or Brian, I was hoping you could talk about how you think about kind of the sustainable level of free cash flow after some of these cost-cutting initiatives occur and kind of as you work through some of these shifts in revenue mix?

Yes. Great. Thanks, Ari. It's great to hear from you. Yes, look, we saw the Q3 free cash flow bounce back. There were some timing issues in our Q2 versus Q3 that have kind of worked themselves out, and we expect Q4 to look similar to Q3. Now on your question, though, I think you're exactly right. This is why we're leaning into the parts of the market that we're leaning into is because you'll see that our penetration in B2B was up 350 basis points. Our penetration in SMB was up 340 basis points. We're seeing growth in the areas of the markets where we want to grow. That allows us to drive better returns and better margins. And with the cost takeout and the network efficiency that we're creating through our automation investments, we do expect the business to generate significantly more free cash flow over time. Clearly, we've got a dividend of around $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion, and we expect it to be above that in the very near future.

Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Chaplin from Evercore ISI.

Yes, sure. And I think it's really exciting as we look at our network. We're not looking at everything exclusively or uniquely, but as one big network. And of course, we keep finding opportunities for us to bring costs down. So if you think about the buildings we've closed, the operations we've closed, also the 34,000 positions that we've eliminated, that's part and parcel, of course, driven by some Amazon, but also our productivity. So if you think about production across the network, Brian mentioned that our inside operations are demonstrating the best process rates in 12 years. Our hub process rates in 20 years, and then we can go down the list with safety in the decade and other items related to cost. I guess what should give everybody comfort is what we've displayed in the first 9 months, we've also started the stage next year in 2026. So this continues, and we will hit our Amazon targets and our drawdown in terms of cost and productivity just gets enhanced as we first, introduce more NOF projects, but also all the peripheral buildings that we had supporting those upgrades will start to fall off as well as we start to implement NOF. A great example of that is Mesquite, 48,000 hub per hour for us, just opened up 2 weeks ago and prior to that, a similar hub in Texas in SweetWater. So really excited about those additions to the network and of course, more to come.

And Jonathan, just to put a number to that because I think the third quarter really shows a testament. We started the year saying that we were going to focus on getting the right volume in the network and drive efficiency and volume was down 12.3%, and we expanded operating margin, and we'll look to continue that trend...

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

So just a follow-up on the Amazon piece. So I think when you first talked about this, it was -- it would be down -- be cut in about half by the middle of next year. Is that number changing at all, bigger or smaller? And as we think about like the next wave of Amazon volume to come out, is it any different in terms of mix, any harder or easier to manage from like a decremental standpoint? And then it's all part of like the same question. Like I know there's $3.5 billion of cost reduction this year. What's the right number to think about for next year in terms of cost reduction?

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

Just wanted to come back to international. Maybe some additional thoughts around your international trade flow analysis. Now that the rest of de minimis has gone, when we sort of lap Liberation Day next year, could we get back to more normal sort of trajectories or patterns? Or is it permanent shifts? And then just along with that, what does it take to keep international margin more sustainably in that high-teen level you guys had been used to? And that's with an eye towards 2026 as well.

Yes, absolutely. And so to unlock that growth, we're a global network with a global portfolio, and we're seeing the return on the investments we made in Asia, expanding our service, fastening our time in transit. So if you look at, say, the top 20 export lanes, non-U.S., 16 of them are growing and growing very nicely. A lot of them are Asia to either Asia, Asia or Asia to Europe and reverse. So that's really the expansion. Customers have needs. They are shifting trade. And within there, I will tell you, we see the small and medium-sized businesses in international growing 9% in many regions of the world. So that also will help us with momentum for next year.

Your next question is coming from the line of Bruce Chan from Stifel.

Our next question is coming from Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

So it seems like your 300 basis points in improvement in domestic is maybe a bit more -- sorry, sequential improvement is a bit more than normal in terms of your target of getting to 9.5% to 10%. Just trying to understand your view on maybe the potential for accelerating that cost-cutting benefits above normal trend as we not only enter fourth quarter, but your thoughts on as we go into '26. And then next -- I guess, next week, we're going to start the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs. Thoughts on -- initial thoughts on the potential impact to de minimis. Could that get reversed and we start seeing that for the rest of the world, if not China, Hong Kong Lane? Maybe any thoughts on the Supreme Court process?

Your next question is coming from Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

Which is another cost that we overcame as we came down to drive margin expansion. And Brian, on your point on rev per piece, look, we continue to see strong base rate improvement in rev per piece. We expect the fourth quarter to be a little bit above 6%. And if you look at that with where we set out originally at the full year to be 6%, we're coming in higher than that. And so we expect that to come through both in base rate, slightly less mix improvement in the third quarter as we start to lap some of the Chinese e-commerce shipper actions that we took last year and then holiday demand -- strong holiday demand surcharge.

Our next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

Your next question is coming from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies.

I wanted to touch on the add-backs, specifically in the U.S. domestic segment for the quarter. If you could just break down maybe the delta between the add-backs going from $66 million to the $302 million in the quarter, really what the components of those -- the major components of the add-backs were for the quarter?

And Stephanie, just to clarify, you're talking about the non-GAAP adjustments.

That is correct.

That's right.

And Matthew, we have time for one more question.

Our final question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

Thank you. I will now turn the floor back over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido.