TXO Partners, L.P.
$13.44
-0.44%TXO Energy Partners, L.P. engages in the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. As of July 31, 2022, it had working interest in the 850,009 gross acres located in the United States primarily in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado, and the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -31.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E -31.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum -0.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -2.4%, ROIC +1.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -5.3%, ROE -2.4%, ROIC +1.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +32.8%, momentum -0.4%, net margin -5.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
TXO Partners, L.P. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
TXO Partners, L.P. Fair Value Envelope
TXO Partners, L.P. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Non-operating losses: Core business is profitable but other expenses (interest, taxes, one-time items) are driving net losses. Review capital structure and non-operating items.
TXO Partners, L.P. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
TXO Partners, L.P. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
TXO Partners, L.P. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TXO stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
TXO Partners, L.P. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $29.84M and sold $1.14M worth of TXO shares, resulting in $28.71M of net buying activity.
3 Months
2.3M
29.82M
54.5K
674.31K
+29.1M
+$29.15M
3-6 Months
2.0K
23.80K
38.4K
463.32K
-440K
-$440K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Simpson Bob R
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$29.70M
Adams William H Iii
Director
$124K
Kevil Phillip R
Director
$24K
Top Sellers
Clum Brent W.
Director, Officer: Co-Ceo And Cfo
$573K
Simpson Gary D.
Director, Officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer
$435K
Agosta Scott T.
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$129K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $28.71M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers and 3 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
txo Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TXO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.