Toll Brothers, Inc.
$137.38
-1.5%Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs; develops and sells land; and develops, operates, and rents apartments, as well as provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, it owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. It has a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities in the United States markets. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 10.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 10.1, earnings yield +9.9%, momentum -1.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +16.3%, ROIC +11.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +12.3%, ROE +16.3%, ROIC +11.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +42.9%, momentum -1.5%, net margin +12.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Toll Brothers, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Toll Brothers, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Toll Brothers, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Toll Brothers, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Toll Brothers, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Toll Brothers, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TOL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 166.78, with estimates ranging from a low of 110.00 to a high of 187.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 166.78, with estimates ranging from a low of 110.00 to a high of 187.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Toll Brothers, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $9K and sold $22.16M worth of TOL shares, resulting in $22.15M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
1.0K
139.70K
-140K
-$140K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
76.3K
12.13M
-12.1M
-$12.13M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
20.1K
2.98M
-3.0M
-$2.98M
9-12 Months
68
8.63K
50.8K
6.90M
-6.9M
-$6.89M
Top Buyers
Sandstrom Katherine M
Director
$9K
Top Sellers
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$17.64M
Parahus Robert
Officer: President & Coo
$1.29M
Shapiro Paul E
Director
$1.14M
Connor Martin P.
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$736K
East Stephen F.
Director
$428K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $22.15M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
tol Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TOL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.