Tilly's, Inc.
$4.53
-2.5%Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise includes tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses; and accessories merchandise comprises backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, small electronics and accessories, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others, as well as hardgoods consists of skateboards, longboards, bikes, roller-skates, and equipment for snowboarding and surfing. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. As of March 14, 2022, it operated 241 stores. The company also sells its merchandise through its e-commerce website, tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -7.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -7.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -20.5%, ROIC -45.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin -3.1%, ROE -20.5%, ROIC -45.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +72.6%, momentum -2.5%, net margin -3.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Tilly's, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Tilly's, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Tilly's, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Tilly's, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Tilly's, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Tilly's, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TLYS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 9.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 12.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 9.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 12.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Tilly's, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $393K and sold $2.69M worth of TLYS shares, resulting in $2.30M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
1.0M
2.69M
-2.7M
-$2.69M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
242.9K
393.46K
0
0.00
+393K
+$393K
Top Buyers
Shay Capital Llc
10 Percent Owner
$393K
Top Sellers
Shay Capital Llc
10 Percent Owner
$2.69M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.30M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers and 1 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
tlys Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TLYS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.