Talos Energy Inc.
$15.18
+2.0%Talos Energy Inc., an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States Gulf of Mexico and offshore Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, the company had proved reserves of 161.59 million barrels of oil equivalent, consisting of 107,764 thousand barrels of crude oil, 236,353 million cubic feet of natural gas, and 14,435 thousand barrels of crude oil. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Houston, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -5.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -5.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum +2.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -22.9%, ROIC -1.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin -27.9%, ROE -22.9%, ROIC -1.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +60.9%, momentum +2.0%, net margin -27.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Talos Energy Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Talos Energy Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Talos Energy Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Talos Energy Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Talos Energy Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Talos Energy Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TALO stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.50 to a high of 18.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.50 to a high of 18.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Talos Energy Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $141K and sold $51.42M worth of TALO shares, resulting in $51.28M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
3.1M
51.35M
-51.4M
-$51.35M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
14.8K
140.60K
0
0.00
+141K
+$141K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
6.6K
63.41K
-63K
-$63K
Top Buyers
Spath John B.
Officer: See Remarks
$50K
Moss William S. Iii
Officer: See Remarks
$50K
Babcock Gregory
Officer: See Remarks
$41K
Top Sellers
Control Empresarial De Capitales S.A. De C.V.
10 Percent Owner, Other: Add'L Rep. Persons-See Ex.99-1
$51.35M
Glover Paula R
Director
$60K
Babcock Gregory
Officer: See Remarks
$4K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $51.28M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers and 3 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
TALO has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
talo Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TALO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.