System1, Inc.
$5.22
+0.0000%System1, Inc. develops technology and data science to operate responsive acquisition marketing platform. The company also operates a real-time coupon code search engine and directory that offers coupon destinations for online shoppers. It serves customers in the areas of health, subscription, finance, insurance, business and technology, travel, auto, and other direct-to-consumer businesses. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Los Angeles, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -0.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -2.1%, ROIC -23.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin -24.6%, ROE -2.1%, ROIC -23.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +95.7%, momentum 0.0%, net margin -24.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
System1, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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System1, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
System1, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
System1, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
System1, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
System1, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SST stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 15.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 15.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
System1, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $527K and sold $202K worth of SST shares, resulting in $325K of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
2.3K
16.43K
-16K
-$16K
9-12 Months
87.8K
527.40K
17.0K
185.84K
+342K
+$342K
Top Buyers
Cee Holdings Trust
10 Percent Owner
$288K
Kidambi Tridivesh
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$142K
Civantos John
Director
$98K
Top Sellers
Kidambi Tridivesh
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$181K
Coppola Brian
Officer: Chief Ad Operations Officer
$8K
Weinrot Daniel J
Officer: General Counsel & Secretary
$8K
Sestanovich Elizabeth
Officer: Chief People Officer
$6K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Positive insider sentiment with $325K net buying. Buying activity substantially exceeds selling, indicating insider confidence.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Strong buy/sell ratio. Buying is at least double the selling activity, suggesting robust insider confidence.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 3 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
sst Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SST by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.