Surf Air Mobility Inc.
$1.09
-2.2%Surf Air Mobility Inc. operates as an electric aviation and air travel company in the United States. It offers an air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on demand charter flights operated by third parties; and air cargo services. The company is headquartered in Hawthorne, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E -0.2, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.0%, ROIC -1.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.0%, ROE +2.0%, ROIC -1.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +141.7%, momentum -2.2%, net margin -1.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 55.3%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SRFM stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 2.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 1.50 to a high of 2.75.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 2.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 1.50 to a high of 2.75.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $2.15M and sold $378K worth of SRFM shares, resulting in $1.78M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
147.3K
193.51K
-194K
-$194K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
1.0M
2.15M
40.6K
184.34K
+2.0M
+$1.97M
Top Buyers
Palantir Technologies Inc.
10 Percent Owner
$2.15M
Top Sellers
Painter Tyler
Director
$184K
Reeves Oliver
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$101K
White Deanna Leigh
Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$93K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $1.78M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
SRFM has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
srfm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SRFM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.