$34.24
+0.79%SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. As of February 24, 2022, it had 492.0 million barrels of oil equivalent of estimated proved reserves. It also has working interests in 825 gross productive oil wells and 483 gross productive gas wells in the Midland Basin and South Texas. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.0B | $8.0B | $16.1B | $32.2B | $64.4B | $128.7B | $257.4B | $514.8B | $1,029.6B | $2,059.3B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$575.2M | -$1.2B | -$2.3B | -$4.6B | -$9.2B | -$18.4B | -$36.8B | -$73.6B | -$147.3B | -$294.5B |
| Owner Earnings | $3.4B | $6.9B | $13.8B | $27.6B | $55.1B | $110.3B | $220.6B | $441.2B | $882.4B | $1,764.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $3.2B | $5.9B | $10.9B | $20.3B | $37.5B | $69.5B | $128.7B | $238.4B | $441.4B | $817.4B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.