$101.27
+0.80%The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Cafรฉ Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Cafรฉ Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.5B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.2B | $4.0B | $5.1B | $6.5B | $8.2B | $10.4B | $13.2B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$100.0M | -$127.1M | -$161.4M | -$205.0M | -$260.4M | -$330.8M | -$420.1M | -$533.6M | -$677.8M | -$860.9M |
| Owner Earnings | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $2.9B | $3.7B | $4.8B | $6.0B | $7.7B | $9.7B | $12.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $3.0B | $3.5B | $4.1B | $4.9B | $5.7B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.