Shake Shack Inc.
$55.53
-11%Shake Shack Inc. owns, operates, and licenses Shake Shack restaurants (Shacks) in the United States and internationally. Its Shacks offers hamburgers, hot dogs, chicken, crinkle cut fries, shakes, frozen custard, beer, wine, and other products. As of December 29, 2021, it operated 369 Shacks, including 218 domestic company-operated Shacks, 25 domestic licensed Shacks, and 126 international licensed Shacks. Shake Shack Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 48.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 48.7, earnings yield +2.1%, momentum -10.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.7%, ROIC +3.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +3.2%, ROE +8.7%, ROIC +3.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +70.8%, momentum -10.8%, net margin +3.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Shake Shack Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Shake Shack Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Shake Shack Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Shake Shack Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Shake Shack Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Shake Shack Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SHAK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 90.11, with estimates ranging from a low of 65.00 to a high of 148.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 90.11, with estimates ranging from a low of 65.00 to a high of 148.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Shake Shack Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $6K and sold $6.49M worth of SHAK shares, resulting in $6.49M of net selling activity.
3 Months
100
6.12K
483
47.43K
-41K
-$41K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
400
36.99K
-37K
-$37K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
900
76.53K
-77K
-$77K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
45.9K
6.33M
-6.3M
-$6.33M
Top Buyers
Silverman Josh
Director
$6K
Top Sellers
Meyer Daniel Harris
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$6.21M
Sentell Stephanie Ann
Officer: Chief Operations Officer
$161K
Fogertey Katherine Irene
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$119K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $6.49M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
SHAK has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
shak Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SHAK by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.