RXO, Inc.
$26.83
+0.34%RXO provides truckload freight transportation brokerage in the United States. The company, through a proprietary digital freight marketplace, offers access to truckload capacity and complementary brokered services of managed transportation, last mile, and freight forwarding. The company is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -45.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -45.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum +0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -6.5%, ROIC -0.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.7%, ROE -6.5%, ROIC -0.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +53.0%, momentum +0.3%, net margin -1.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
RXO, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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RXO, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
RXO, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
RXO, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Neutral working capital impact. Changes in current assets and liabilities balanced out.
RXO, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
RXO, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that RXO stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 20.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 26.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 20.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 26.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
RXO, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $6.93M and sold $386K worth of RXO shares, resulting in $6.54M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
532.3K
6.39M
0
0.00
+6.4M
+$6.39M
6-9 Months
45.8K
540.11K
33.3K
385.78K
+154K
+$154K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Mfn Partners, Lp
10 Percent Owner
$6.39M
Szlosek Thomas A
Director
$251K
Kingshott Adrian
Director
$101K
Wilkerson Andrew M.
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$100K
Cooper Troy A.
Director
$88K
Top Sellers
Kerr Jason S.
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$386K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $6.54M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
No Dividend Yield Data
RXO has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
rxo Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on RXO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.