Post Holdings, Inc.

Post Holdings, Inc.

POSTยทNYSE

$91.00

-0.055%
Consumer DefensivePackaged Foods

Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$4.12B
EPS5.9800
P/E Ratio15.22
Earnings Date08/06/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 15.2).

Valuation inputs: P/E 15.2, earnings yield +6.6%, momentum -0.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +8.9%, ROIC +5.2%).

Profitability stack: net margin +4.1%, ROE +8.9%, ROIC +5.2%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +72.2%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +4.1%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Post Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

POST ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Post Holdings, Inc.

Post Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

POST ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that POST has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $91, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Post Holdings, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $91
3Y-52.0%
5Y+51452.0%
10Y-12558.0%
3Y+39.0%
5Y+73.0%
10Y+62.0%
3Y-56.0%
5Y+41862.0%
10Y-10273.0%
3Y+160.0%
5Y+60.0%
10Y+99.0%
3Y+279.0%
5Y+25.0%
10Y+28.0%
3Y+20.0%
5Y+11.0%
10Y+45.0%
Post Holdings, Inc.

Post Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge

POST ยท NYSE
Revenue8.16B
Cost of Goods Sold (6.01B)
Gross Profit2.15B
Operating Expenses (1.30B)
Operating Income851.90M
Interest Expense (361.40M)
Other Income/Expense-407.40M
Pretax Income444.50M
Income Tax (108.70M)
Net Income335.70M
Net Income
335.70M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

26.4%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

10.4%

Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.

Net Profit Margin

4.1%

Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.

Effective Tax Rate

24.5%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

26.37%
Gross Profit Margin
-3%
3Y+22.0%
5Y-14.0%
10Y-14.0%
10.44%
Operating Profit Margin
-1%
3Y+59.0%
5Y-8.0%
10Y-4.0%
4.11%
Net Profit Margin
-11%
3Y-68.0%
5Y+24105.0%
10Y-6373.0%
8.94%
Return on Equity
3Y-62.0%
5Y+31845.0%
10Y-8254.0%
2.48%
Return on Assets
-13%
3Y-63.0%
5Y+37497.0%
10Y-7129.0%
5.21%
Return on Invested Capital
-4%
3Y+59.0%
5Y+51.0%
10Y+661.0%
POST

Post Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

POST ยท NYSE
Net Income335.70M
Depreciation & Amortization524.30M
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital3.80M
Others129.90M
Capital Expenditures-510.20M
Free Cash Flow488.10M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

145.4%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

51.1%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

-2.8%

Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expandingโ€”monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.

Working Capital Impact

+$3.80M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.

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Post Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

POST ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents269.40M
Net Receivables728.80M
Inventory911.60M
Other Current Assets142.00M
Total Current Assets2 B
Property, Plant & Equipment2.65B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets7.67B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets606.90M
Total Non-Current Assets3 B
Total Assets
12.98B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.85x

Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

3.05x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

945 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

16% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Post Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map

POST ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that POST stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 114.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 110.00 to a high of 119.00.

Lowest Target
110.00
20.88%
Consensus Target
114.50
25.82%
Highest Target
119.00
30.77%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 114.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 110.00 to a high of 119.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+25.8%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

7.9% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

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Post Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning

POST ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $24.50M and sold $2.80M worth of POST shares, resulting in $21.69M of net buying activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

6.2K

649.84K

Net Activity

-650K

-$650K

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

7.0K

798.22K

Net Activity

-798K

-$798K

6-9 Months

Bought

1.8K

176.27K

Sold

11.7K

1.16M

Net Activity

-986K

-$986K

9-12 Months

Bought

222.7K

24.32M

Sold

1.8K

190.70K

Net Activity

+24.1M

+$24.13M

Top Buyers

1
SWP

Stiritz William P

Director

222.7K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$24.32M

2
KDW

Kemper David W

Director

1.8K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$176K

Top Sellers

1
CGL

Curl Gregory L

Director

13.2K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$1.45M

2
CN

Catoggio Nicolas

Officer: Pres & Ceo, Pcb

11.8K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$1.19M

3
HBA

Harper Bradly A

Officer: Svp, Chief Accting Officer

1.7K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$160K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Strong bullish signal with $21.69M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

8.74:1

Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs sellingโ€”one of the strongest possible insider signals.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$650K

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

Moderate Selling

3 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.

Insider Activity Insight

Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-100.0%
ย 

post Dividend History

POST
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%