PBF Energy Inc.
$42.55
+1.7%PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated six oil refineries and related assets. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -30.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -30.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -3.0%, ROIC -0.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin -0.5%, ROE -3.0%, ROIC -0.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +58.1%, momentum +1.7%, net margin -0.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
PBF Energy Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 140.6%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+144.2%) is outpacing price appreciation (+140.6%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
PBF Energy Inc. Fair Value Envelope
PBF Energy Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Critical situation: Negative gross margins indicate fundamental business model issues. The company loses money on every sale—immediate strategic changes required.
PBF Energy Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
PBF Energy Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
PBF Energy Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PBF stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 39.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 49.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 39.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 49.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
PBF Energy Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $872K and sold $306.11M worth of PBF shares, resulting in $305.24M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
3.7M
164.48M
-164.5M
-$164.48M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
3.4M
123.44M
-123.4M
-$123.44M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
512.0K
18.19M
-18.2M
-$18.19M
9-12 Months
48.5K
872.34K
0
0.00
+872K
+$872K
Top Buyers
Control Empresarial De Capitales S.A. De C.V.
10 Percent Owner, Other: Add'L Rep. Persons-See Ex.99-1
$872K
Top Sellers
Control Empresarial De Capitales S.A. De C.V.
10 Percent Owner, Other: Add'L Rep. Persons-See Ex.99-1
$267.95M
Nimbley Thomas J.
Director
$21.74M
Davis Paul T
Officer: Senior Vice President
$6.71M
O Connor Thomas L
Officer: Senior Vice President
$4.10M
Canty Trecia M
Officer: Svp And General Counsel
$3.53M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $305.24M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
pbf Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PBF by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.