PACS Group, Inc.
$36.50
-1.8%PACS Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of post-acute healthcare facilities, professionals, and ancillary services. It provides senior care, assisted living, and independent living options in some of the communities. The company was founded by Jason Murray and Mark Hancock in 2013 and is headquartered in Farmington, UT.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 29.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 29.7, earnings yield +3.4%, momentum -1.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +20.2%, ROIC +4.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +3.6%, ROE +20.2%, ROIC +4.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +82.9%, momentum -1.8%, net margin +3.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
PACS Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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PACS Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
PACS Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
PACS Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
PACS Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
PACS Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PACS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 48.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 42.00 to a high of 52.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 48.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 42.00 to a high of 52.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
PACS Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $500K and sold $7.76M worth of PACS shares, resulting in $7.26M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
82.3K
2.99M
-3.0M
-$2.99M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
16.7K
500.00K
159.6K
4.77M
-4.3M
-$4.27M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Dilsaver Evelyn S
Director
$500K
Top Sellers
Mitchell John Todd
Officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.
$6.51M
Jergensen Joshua
Officer: President & Coo
$1.25M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $7.26M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
pacs Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PACS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.