ONE Gas, Inc.
$77.30
+0.65%ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states. It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 17.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 17.6, earnings yield +5.7%, momentum +0.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +7.7%, ROIC +4.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +10.9%, ROE +7.7%, ROIC +4.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +63.1%, momentum +0.7%, net margin +10.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
ONE Gas, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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ONE Gas, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
ONE Gas, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
ONE Gas, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
ONE Gas, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
ONE Gas, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that OGS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 87.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 82.00 to a high of 95.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 87.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 82.00 to a high of 95.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
ONE Gas, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $396K worth of OGS shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
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0
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3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.9K
159.83K
-160K
-$160K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
3.0K
236.57K
-237K
-$237K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
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+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Hutchinson Michael G
Director
$237K
Brumfield Brian F.
Officer: See Remarks
$86K
Rodriguez Eduardo A
Director
$73K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $396K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
ogs Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on OGS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.