Origin Bancorp, Inc.
$46.56
-2.3%Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, residential mortgage, and paycheck protection program loans. The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 19.2, earnings yield +5.2%, momentum -2.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.0%, ROIC -4.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +12.6%, ROE +6.0%, ROIC -4.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +87.2%, momentum -2.3%, net margin +12.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Origin Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Origin Bancorp, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that OBK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 51.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 49.00 to a high of 54.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 51.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 49.00 to a high of 54.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $295K worth of OBK shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
0
0.00
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6-9 Months
8.5K
295.49K
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+295K
+$295K
9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
Jones Cecil W.
Director
$295K
Luffey Gary E.
Director
$452
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $295K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
obk Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on OBK by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.