$42.37
+0.35%National Storage Affiliates Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2020, the Company held ownership interests in and operated 788 self storage properties located in 35 states and Puerto Rico with approximately 49.5 million rentable square feet. NSA is one of the largest owners and operators of self storage properties among public and private companies in the United States.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $296.3M | $259.4M | $227.1M | $198.8M | $174.0M | $152.3M | $133.3M | $116.7M | $102.2M | $89.5M |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$6.8M | -$5.9M | -$5.2M | -$4.5M | -$4.0M | -$3.5M | -$3.0M | -$2.7M | -$2.3M | -$2.0M |
| Owner Earnings | $289.5M | $253.5M | $221.9M | $194.2M | $170.0M | $148.8M | $130.3M | $114.1M | $99.8M | $87.4M |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $268.1M | $217.3M | $176.1M | $142.8M | $115.7M | $93.8M | $76.0M | $61.6M | $49.9M | $40.5M |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.