NNN REIT, Inc.
$44.19
+0.31%National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality retail properties subject generally to long-term, net leases. As of September 30, 2020, the company owned 3,114 properties in 48 states with a gross leasable area of approximately 32.4 million square feet and with a weighted average remaining lease term of 10.7 years.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 19.1, earnings yield +5.2%, momentum +0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.8%, ROIC +6.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +42.1%, ROE +8.8%, ROIC +6.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +53.0%, momentum +0.3%, net margin +42.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
NNN REIT, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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NNN REIT, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
NNN REIT, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
NNN REIT, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
NNN REIT, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
NNN REIT, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NNN stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 46.44, with estimates ranging from a low of 43.00 to a high of 50.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 46.44, with estimates ranging from a low of 43.00 to a high of 50.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
NNN REIT, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $2.56M worth of NNN shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
39.2K
1.76M
-1.8M
-$1.76M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
4.0K
176.12K
-176K
-$176K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
14.8K
625.86K
-626K
-$626K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Horn Stephen A Jr
Officer: President & Ceo
$1.49M
Miller Michelle Lynn
Officer: Evp,Chief Acctg & Tech Officer
$598K
Adamo Jonathan
Officer: Evp Chief Portfolio Operations
$474K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.56M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
nnn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NNN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.