Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
$21.17
-0.61%Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-Agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 7.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 7.3, earnings yield +13.8%, momentum -0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +12.6%, ROIC +189.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +30.3%, ROE +12.6%, ROIC +189.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +88.1%, momentum -0.6%, net margin +30.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NLY stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 24.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 25.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 24.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 25.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $7.35M worth of NLY shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
66.5K
1.52M
-1.5M
-$1.52M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
121.3K
2.80M
-2.8M
-$2.80M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
72.5K
1.53M
-1.5M
-$1.53M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
72.5K
1.50M
-1.5M
-$1.50M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Finkelstein David L
Director, Officer: Ceo And Co-Cio
$4.40M
Campbell Steven Francis
Officer: President And Coo
$1.26M
Green Anthony C
Officer: Chief Corporate Officer, Clo
$939K
Wolfe Serena
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$754K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $7.35M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
nly Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NLY by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.