National Fuel Gas Company

National Fuel Gas Company

NFGยทNYSE

$77.45

+0.28%
EnergyOil & Gas Integrated

National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States. As of September 30, 2021, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 21,537 thousand barrels of oil and 3,723,433 million cubic feet of natural gas. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State; and owns and operates the Empire Pipeline. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca Resources Company, LLC. The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. The company markets gas to industrial, wholesale, commercial, public authority, and residential customers primarily in western and central New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania. As of September 30, 2021, the company also owned approximately 95,000 acres of timber property; and managed approximately 2,500 additional acres of timber cutting rights. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$7.36B
EPS5.7300
P/E Ratio13.52
Earnings Date07/29/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 13.5).

Valuation inputs: P/E 13.5, earnings yield +7.4%, momentum +0.3%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is acceptable (ROE +16.8%, ROIC +7.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin +22.8%, ROE +16.8%, ROIC +7.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +64.5%, momentum +0.3%, net margin +22.8%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

nfg

National Fuel Gas Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory

NFG ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

National Fuel Gas Company

National Fuel Gas Company Fair Value Envelope

NFG ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that NFG has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $77.45, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for National Fuel Gas Company.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $77.45
3Y-7.0%
5Y-506.0%
10Y-267.0%
3Y+4.0%
5Y+47.0%
10Y+57.0%
3Y-8.0%
5Y-519.0%
10Y-278.0%
3Y+35.0%
5Y+48.0%
10Y+87.0%
3Y+26836.0%
5Y-139.0%
10Y+2429.0%
3Y+10.0%
5Y+21.0%
10Y+55.0%
National Fuel Gas Company

National Fuel Gas Company Profit Bridge

NFG ยท NYSE
Revenue2.28B
Cost of Goods Sold (771.31M)
Gross Profit1.51B
Operating Expenses (692.78M)
Operating Income813.46M
Interest Expense (155.83M)
Other Income/Expense-119.41M
Pretax Income694.05M
Income Tax (175.55M)
Net Income518.50M
Net Income
518.50M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

66.1%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

35.7%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

22.8%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

25.3%

Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

66.13%
Gross Profit Margin
57%
3Y+60.0%
5Y+80.0%
10Y+57.0%
35.72%
Operating Profit Margin
231%
3Y-4.0%
5Y+1750.0%
10Y-225.0%
22.77%
Net Profit Margin
471%
3Y-12.0%
5Y-384.0%
10Y-214.0%
16.76%
Return on Equity
516%
3Y-38.0%
5Y-367.0%
10Y-188.0%
5.95%
Return on Assets
538%
3Y-17.0%
5Y-435.0%
10Y-215.0%
7.37%
Return on Invested Capital
209%
3Y-28.0%
5Y+1269.0%
10Y-270.0%
NFG

National Fuel Gas Company Cash Conversion Engine

NFG ยท NYSE
Net Income518.50M
Depreciation & Amortization456.59M
Stock-Based Compensation19.75M
Change in Working Capital-185.22M
Others169.12M
Capital Expenditures-912.82M
Free Cash Flow187.21M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

36.1%

Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cashโ€”review working capital trends and capital intensity.

CapEx Intensity

83.0%

Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.

FCF Growth Trend

+39.0%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

-$185.22M

Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโ€”monitor closely.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.

nfg

National Fuel Gas Company Funding & Solvency Profile

NFG ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents26.60M
Net Receivables292.55M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets188.45M
Total Current Assets508 M
Property, Plant & Equipment15.83B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets5.48M
Long-Term Investments65.87M
Other Non-Current Assets-7.28B
Total Non-Current Assets9 B
Total Assets
9.13B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.62x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

1.39x

Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.

Working Capital

-312551000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโ€”potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

6% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attentionโ€”potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.

nfg

National Fuel Gas Company Street Expectations Map

NFG ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that NFG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 101.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 101.00 to a high of 101.00.

Lowest Target
101.00
30.41%
Consensus Target
101.00
30.41%
Highest Target
101.00
30.41%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 101.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 101.00 to a high of 101.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+30.4%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

nfg

National Fuel Gas Company Insider Positioning

NFG ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for NFG.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Neutral

No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.

Insider Participation

No Activity

No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.

0.57%
Dividend Yield
-14%
3Y-31.0%
5Y-36.0%
10Y-18.0%
ย 

nfg Dividend History

NFG
10Y CAGR +3%
Latest $0.535
Annual $2.655
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%