National Fuel Gas Company
$77.45
+0.66%National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States. As of September 30, 2021, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 21,537 thousand barrels of oil and 3,723,433 million cubic feet of natural gas. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State; and owns and operates the Empire Pipeline. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca Resources Company, LLC. The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. The company markets gas to industrial, wholesale, commercial, public authority, and residential customers primarily in western and central New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania. As of September 30, 2021, the company also owned approximately 95,000 acres of timber property; and managed approximately 2,500 additional acres of timber cutting rights. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 13.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 13.5, earnings yield +7.4%, momentum +0.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +16.8%, ROIC +7.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +22.8%, ROE +16.8%, ROIC +7.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +64.5%, momentum +0.7%, net margin +22.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
National Fuel Gas Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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National Fuel Gas Company Fair Value Envelope
National Fuel Gas Company Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
National Fuel Gas Company Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cashโreview working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโmonitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
National Fuel Gas Company Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโpotential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attentionโpotential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
National Fuel Gas Company Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NFG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 101.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 101.00 to a high of 101.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 101.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 101.00 to a high of 101.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
National Fuel Gas Company Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for NFG.
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.
Insider Participation
No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.
nfg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NFG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.