MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
$117.21
+0.99%MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. Its MRO products include cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, metalworking products, fasteners, flat stock products, raw materials, abrasives, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies. The company offers approximately 1.9 million stock-keeping units through its catalogs and brochures; e-commerce channels, including its Website, mscdirect.com; inventory management solutions; and call-centers and branches. It operates through a distribution network of 28 branch offices, 11 customer fulfilment centers, and seven regional inventory centers. The company serves individual machine shops, Fortune 1000 manufacturing companies, and government agencies, as well as manufacturers of various sizes. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 32.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 32.8, earnings yield +3.0%, momentum +1.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +14.4%, ROIC +11.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.3%, ROE +14.4%, ROIC +11.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +43.3%, momentum +1.0%, net margin +5.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Fair Value Envelope
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MSM stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 98.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 85.00 to a high of 120.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 98.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 85.00 to a high of 120.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $15.41M and sold $904K worth of MSM shares, resulting in $14.50M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.8K
156.29K
-156K
-$156K
6-9 Months
181.3K
15.41M
0
0.00
+15.4M
+$15.41M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
8.3K
747.62K
-748K
-$748K
Top Buyers
Jacobson Mitchell
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$14.81M
Peller Philip
Director
$601K
Top Sellers
Shacklett Kimberly
Officer: Svp, Sales & Customer Success
$389K
Peller Philip
Director
$180K
Gershwind Erik
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$179K
Seseri Rudina
Director
$156K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $14.50M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
msm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MSM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.