Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$184.82
+1.2%Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 20.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 20.7, earnings yield +4.8%, momentum +1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +11.6%, ROIC +7.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.0%, ROE +11.6%, ROIC +7.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +73.9%, momentum +1.2%, net margin +1.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Molina Healthcare, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MOH stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 172.92, with estimates ranging from a low of 124.00 to a high of 224.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 172.92, with estimates ranging from a low of 124.00 to a high of 224.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $956K and sold $3.66M worth of MOH shares, resulting in $2.71M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
18.9K
3.50M
-3.5M
-$3.50M
3-6 Months
800
100.13K
0
0.00
+100K
+$100K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
357
51.06K
-51K
-$51K
9-12 Months
5.5K
855.75K
700
107.62K
+748K
+$748K
Top Buyers
Woys James
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$856K
Zoretic Richard C
Director
$100K
Top Sellers
Barlow Jeff D.
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$3.31M
Romney Ronna
Director
$182K
Hebert Maurice
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$115K
Schapiro Richard M
Director
$51K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.71M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
MOH has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
moh Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MOH by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.