Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
$27.96
+0.90%Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings Field in South Texas principally comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. As of December 31, 2021, the company's assets consisted of a total leasehold position of 4,71,263 net acres, including 23,785 net acres in Karnes and 4,47,478 net acres in the Giddings area, as well as holds 1,292 net wells with a total production capacity of 66.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 16.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 16.0, earnings yield +6.3%, momentum +0.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +16.8%, ROIC +13.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +24.8%, ROE +16.8%, ROIC +13.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +31.1%, momentum +0.9%, net margin +24.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Conservative with tight liquidity: Low debt is positive, but current ratio warrants attention. Consider whether the company is efficiently deploying its equity capital.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MGY stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 29.56, with estimates ranging from a low of 26.00 to a high of 35.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 29.56, with estimates ranging from a low of 26.00 to a high of 35.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $104K and sold $10.32M worth of MGY shares, resulting in $10.22M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
351.9K
10.32M
-10.3M
-$10.32M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
4.5K
103.96K
0
0.00
+104K
+$104K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Ropp Ralph Lewis
Director
$104K
Top Sellers
Yang Timothy D.
Officer: Evp, Chief Legal & Comm & Sec
$4.39M
Stavros Christopher G
Director, Officer: Ceo & Chairman
$3.51M
Corales Brian
Officer: Svp & Chief Financial Officer
$961K
Acosta Arcilia
Director
$560K
Djerejian Edward P
Director
$522K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $10.22M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
mgy Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MGY by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.