MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$20.76
-1.2%MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery, and construction materials and services businesses in the United States. The company's Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity for residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, as well as operates 3,500 miles of transmission lines and 4,800 miles of distribution lines. Its Natural Gas Distribution segment distributes natural gas for residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming; and offers supply-related value-added services. The company's Pipeline segment provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions; and cathodic protection and other energy-related services. Its Construction Materials and Contracting segment mines, processes, and sells construction aggregates; produces and sells asphalt mix; and supplies ready-mixed concrete. This segment is also involved in the sale of cement, finished concrete products, and other building materials and related contracting services. The company's Construction Services segment designs, constructs, and maintains electrical and communication wiring and infrastructure, fire suppression systems, mechanical piping and services; overhead and underground electrical, gas, and communication infrastructure; and manufactures and distributes transmission lines construction equipment. It serves manufacturing, commercial, industrial, transportation, institutional, and renewable and government customers, as well as utilities. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 22.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 22.3, earnings yield +4.5%, momentum -1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.9%, ROIC +3.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +10.2%, ROE +6.9%, ROIC +3.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +64.2%, momentum -1.2%, net margin +10.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 23.1%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Moderate P/E ratio suggests fair market valuation relative to earnings.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-12.4%), the stock price has risen (+23.1%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MDU stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 21.00 to a high of 21.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 21.00 to a high of 21.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $266K worth of MDU shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
5.0K
104.22K
0
0.00
+104K
+$104K
6-9 Months
5.0K
80.38K
0
0.00
+80K
+$80K
9-12 Months
5.0K
81.38K
0
0.00
+81K
+$81K
Top Buyers
Vollmer Jason L
Officer: Cfo
$162K
Kelley Charles M
Director
$104K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $266K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
mdu Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MDU by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.