Macy's, Inc.
$21.80
+0.55%Macy's, Inc., an omni-channel retail organization, operates stores, Websites, and mobile applications. The company sells a range of merchandise, such as apparel and accessories for men, women, and children; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 725 department stores in the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam under the Macy's, Macy's Backstage, Market by Macy's, Bloomingdale's, Bloomingdale's The Outlet, Bloomies, and bluemercury brands. It also operates in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, and Al Zahra, Kuwait under the license agreements. The company also operates as a beauty products and spa retailer. The company was formerly known as Federated Department Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Macy's, Inc. in June 2007. Macy's, Inc. was founded in 1830 and is based in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 9.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 9.2, earnings yield +10.9%, momentum +0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +13.2%, ROIC +6.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.8%, ROE +13.2%, ROIC +6.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +70.1%, momentum +0.6%, net margin +2.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Macy's, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 90.4%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-18.8%), the stock price has risen (+90.4%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Macy's, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Macy's, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Macy's, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Macy's, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Macy's, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that M stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 22.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 22.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
Macy's, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $10.60M worth of M shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
204.7K
3.67M
-3.7M
-$3.67M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
98.5K
2.33M
-2.3M
-$2.33M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
162.8K
2.87M
-2.9M
-$2.87M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
100.0K
1.73M
-1.7M
-$1.73M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Kirgan Danielle L.
Officer: Evp, Chief Hr Officer
$7.14M
Spring Antony
Director, Officer: Chairman & Ceo
$2.45M
Bron Olivier
Officer: Ceo, Bloomingdale'S
$568K
Griscom Paul
Officer: Svp And Controller
$311K
Preston Tracy M
Officer: Evp, Clo & Corporate Secretary
$143K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $10.60M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
m Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on M by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.