Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
$41.94
-1.5%Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets value-added frozen potato products worldwide. It operates through four segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company offers frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients, and appetizers under the Lamb Weston brand, as well as under various customer labels. The company also offers its products under its owned or licensed brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, and other licensed brands, as well as under retailers' brands. In addition, it engages in the vegetable and dairy businesses. The company serves retail and foodservice customers; and grocery, mass merchants, club, and specialty retailers; and businesses, educational institutions, independent restaurants, regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Eagle, Idaho.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 16.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 16.7, earnings yield +6.0%, momentum -1.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +20.6%, ROIC +7.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.5%, ROE +20.6%, ROIC +7.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +76.5%, momentum -1.5%, net margin +5.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that LW stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 49.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 46.00 to a high of 55.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 49.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 46.00 to a high of 55.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $19.21M and sold $100K worth of LW shares, resulting in $19.11M of net buying activity.
3 Months
403.1K
16.78M
0
0.00
+16.8M
+$16.78M
3-6 Months
50.0K
2.43M
0
0.00
+2.4M
+$2.43M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
1.6K
99.97K
-100K
-$100K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Jana Partners Management, Lp
Director, Other: See Remarks
$16.07M
Craps Jan Eli B
Director, Officer: Executive Chair
$2.43M
Gray James D
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$404K
Bensen Peter J
Director
$197K
Prestage Norman
Director
$104K
Top Sellers
Jones Gregory W
Officer: Vp And Controller
$100K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $19.11M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
lw Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on LW by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.