LiveWire Group, Inc.
$1.29
-7.2%LiveWire Group, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of electric motorcycles in North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific regions. It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name. The company has strategic partnerships with Harley-Davidson, Inc. and the KYMCO Group. LiveWire Group, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -1.6%, ROIC -60.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.9%, ROE -1.6%, ROIC -60.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.6%, momentum -7.2%, net margin -2.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
LiveWire Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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LiveWire Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
LiveWire Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
LiveWire Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
LiveWire Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
LiveWire Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that LVWR stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.50 to a high of 7.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.50 to a high of 7.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
LiveWire Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $2.02M worth of LVWR shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
0
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4.2K
16.89K
-17K
-$17K
9-12 Months
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295.2K
2.00M
-2.0M
-$2.00M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Donnez Karim
Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$840K
Garcia John L
Director
$740K
Maraj Tralisa
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$215K
Gruner Kjell
Director
$123K
Bekefy Jon
Officer: Head Of Global Sales & Mktg.
$83K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.02M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
LVWR has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
lvwr Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on LVWR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.