Karman Holdings Inc.
$51.84
-1.4%Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Karman Space and Defense, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems for missile and defense, space programs, hypersonic, and launch vehicle markets. It also supplies metallic and composite flight hardware and sub-assemblies. In addition, the company provides solutions for payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Huntington Beach, California. Karman Holdings Inc. is a subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 398.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 398.8, earnings yield +0.3%, momentum -1.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.5%, ROIC +3.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +3.7%, ROE +4.5%, ROIC +3.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +66.5%, momentum -1.4%, net margin +3.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Karman Holdings Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Karman Holdings Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Karman Holdings Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Interest or tax burden: Strong operational performance but thin net margins indicate high interest expenses or unfavorable tax position eating into profits.
Karman Holdings Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Karman Holdings Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Karman Holdings Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that KRMN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 110.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 100.00 to a high of 130.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 110.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 100.00 to a high of 130.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Karman Holdings Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.23B worth of KRMN shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
75.0K
5.20M
-5.2M
-$5.20M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
566.0K
35.97M
-36.0M
-$35.97M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
24.2M
1.19B
-1.2B
-$1.19B
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Tcfiii Spaceco Spv Lp
10 Percent Owner
$1.16B
Koblinski Anthony
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$31.88M
Willis Michael
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$11.64M
Raduenz Brian
Director
$9.46M
Beaudoin Jonathan
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$8.63M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.23B net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
krmn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on KRMN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.