KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

KREFยทNYSE

$6.96

+2.1%
Real EstateREIT - Mortgage

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets. It engages in the origination and purchase of credit investments related to CRE, including leveraged and unleveraged commercial mortgage loans, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$447.85M
EPS-1.0500
P/E Ratio-6.63
Earnings Date07/28/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -6.6).

Valuation inputs: P/E -6.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +2.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -4.0%, ROIC +4.2%).

Profitability stack: net margin -10.3%, ROE -4.0%, ROIC +4.2%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +81.0%, momentum +2.1%, net margin -10.3%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

KREF ยท NYSE

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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Fair Value Envelope

KREF ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that KREF has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $6.965, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $6.965
3Y-557.0%
5Y-209.0%
10Y-275.0%
3Y+5.0%
5Y+265.0%
10Y+1199.0%
3Y-223.0%
5Y-186.0%
10Y-251.0%
3Y-49.0%
5Y-37.0%
10Y+185.0%
3Y-52.0%
5Y-42.0%
10Y+167.0%
3Y-17.0%
5Y+30.0%
10Y+3.0%
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Profit Bridge

KREF ยท NYSE
Revenue457.96M
Cost of Goods Sold (53.56M)
Gross Profit404.40M
Operating Expenses (132.76M)
Operating Income271.64M
Interest Expense (322.96M)
Other Income/Expense-322.28M
Pretax Income-50.65M
Income Tax (-156.00K)
Net Income-47.05M
Net Income
-47.05M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

88.3%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

59.3%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

-10.3%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

Interest or tax burden: Strong operational performance but thin net margins indicate high interest expenses or unfavorable tax position eating into profits.

88.30%
Gross Profit Margin
-4%
3Y-3.0%
5Y+9.0%
10Y+8.0%
59.31%
Operating Profit Margin
-21%
3Y-4.0%
5Y+36.0%
10Y-46.0%
-10.27%
Net Profit Margin
-271%
3Y-218.0%
5Y-124.0%
10Y-112.0%
-4.01%
Return on Equity
-252%
3Y-265.0%
5Y-177.0%
10Y-164.0%
-0.73%
Return on Assets
-230%
3Y-249.0%
5Y-166.0%
10Y-246.0%
4.19%
Return on Invested Capital
-40%
3Y+22.0%
5Y+279.0%
10Y-85.0%
KREF

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

KREF ยท NYSE
Net Income-50.49M
Depreciation & Amortization2.60M
Stock-Based Compensation7.93M
Change in Working Capital-5.00M
Others117.25M
Capital Expenditures-5.58M
Free Cash Flow66.70M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-132.1%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

CapEx Intensity

7.7%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-46.4%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$5.00M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.

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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

KREF ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents135.44M
Net Receivables0.00
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets135 M
Property, Plant & Equipment0.00
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets0.00
Total Non-Current Assets0
Total Assets
6.95B

Financial Health Analysis

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

5.03x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

135 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

2% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Street Expectations Map

KREF ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that KREF stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.00.

Lowest Target
7.00
0.50%
Consensus Target
7.00
0.50%
Highest Target
7.00
0.50%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+0.5%

Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Moderate

Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.

Market Sentiment Insight

Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.

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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Insider Positioning

KREF ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.22M and sold $1.21M worth of KREF shares, resulting in $13K of net buying activity.

3 Months

Bought

100.0K

603.54K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+604K

+$604K

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

78.7K

616.94K

Sold

144.6K

1.21M

Net Activity

-590K

-$590K

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

1
SMA

Salem Matthew A

Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer

92.0K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$613K

2
MWP

Mattson W Patrick

Officer: President, Coo And Secretary

53.0K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$344K

3
ATR

Ahern Terrance R

Director

23.7K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$185K

4
LCE

Lee Christen E.J.

Director

10.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$78K

Top Sellers

1
RRF

Rosenberg Ralph F

Director

125.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.03M

2
LCE

Lee Christen E.J.

Director

10.1K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$91K

3
DK

Decious Kendra

Officer: Cfo And Treasurer

8.8K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$79K

4
GK

Galligan Kelly

Officer: General Counsel And Secretary

420 sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$4K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Moderately bullish with $13K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.

Buy/Sell Ratio

1.01:1

Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$604K

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

Balanced

4 insider buyers and 4 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.

Insider Activity Insight

Broad-based insider buying: When multiple insiders independently decide to purchase shares, it often reflects genuine confidence rather than coordinated optics. This pattern deserves attention, especially if buying followed a price decline.

4.07%
Dividend Yield
1%
3Y-9.0%
5Y+71.0%
10Y+782.0%
ย 

kref Dividend History

KREF
10Y CAGR 9%
Latest $0.1
Annual $1.1
Dividend decline trend
Last Period: 60%