Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
$67.35
-1.7%Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates contract compression infrastructure for customers in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It operates in two segments, Compression Operations and Other Services. The Compression Operations segment operates company-owned and customer-owned compression infrastructure to enable the production, gathering, and transportation of natural gas and oil. The Other Services segment provides a range of contract services, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, and other ancillary time and material-based offerings. The company was formerly known as Frontier TopCo, Inc. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is based in Montgomery, Texas. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Frontier Topco Partnership, L.P.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 73.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 73.2, earnings yield +1.4%, momentum -1.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.7%, ROIC +7.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +6.2%, ROE +6.7%, ROIC +7.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +72.0%, momentum -1.7%, net margin +6.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that KGS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 78.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 44.00 to a high of 93.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 78.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 44.00 to a high of 93.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $624K and sold $1.01B worth of KGS shares, resulting in $1.01B of net selling activity.
3 Months
11.0K
602.61K
58.7K
3.27M
-2.7M
-$2.67M
3-6 Months
433
21.75K
0
0.00
+22K
+$22K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
29.8M
1.01B
-1.0B
-$1.01B
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Hogan Randall J
Director
$329K
Darden Alexander Newsom
Director
$274K
Mckee Robert Michael
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$22K
Top Sellers
Frontier Topco Partnership, L.P.
10 Percent Owner
$1.01B
Roclawski Cory Anne
Officer: Evp & Chro
$1.79M
Buhigas Pedro R.
Officer: Chief Information Officer
$777K
Hamilton Ewan William
Officer: Evp & Chief Accounting Officer
$706K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.01B net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 3 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
kgs Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on KGS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.