Holley Inc.
$2.62
-1.1%Holley Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets automotive aftermarket products for car and truck enthusiasts in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. The company's products include carburetors, fuel pumps, fuel injection systems, nitrous oxide injection systems, superchargers, exhaust headers, mufflers, distributors, ignition components, engine tuners, automotive performance plumbing products, and exhaust products as well as shifters, converters, transmission kits, transmissions, tuners, and automotive software. It also offers wheels, chassis and suspension products, helmets, head and neck restraints, seat belts, firesuits, and electronic control and monitoring systems. The company sells its products under the Holley, Holley EFI, APR, MSD, Flowmaster, Powerteq, Accel, and Simpson brands to retailers directly, as well as through distributors and online channel. The company was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Bowling Green, Kentucky.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 25.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 25.7, earnings yield +3.9%, momentum -1.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.3%, ROIC +5.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +3.1%, ROE +4.3%, ROIC +5.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +61.4%, momentum -1.1%, net margin +3.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Holley Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Holley Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Holley Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Holley Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Holley Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Holley Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HLLY stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 8.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 8.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Holley Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $42.34M worth of HLLY shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
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16.1M
42.34M
-42.3M
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9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Lobel David S
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$42.34M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $42.34M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
hlly Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HLLY by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.