Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
$49.92
-1.2%Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. It sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests; manages resorts and clubs; operates points-based vacation clubs and resort amenities; and finances and services loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases. The company also manages and operates the points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange programs, and Diamond Clubs, which provide exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services to approximately 333,000 members, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs. As of December 31, 2021, it had 154 properties located in the United States. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 55.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 55.5, earnings yield +1.8%, momentum -1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.3%, ROIC +3.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.6%, ROE +6.3%, ROIC +3.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +87.5%, momentum -1.2%, net margin +1.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 28.9%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Very high P/E suggests premium valuation or high growth expectations.
Key Insight
Stock price (+28.9%) is outpacing earnings growth (+25.6%), suggesting the market may be pricing in future growth. Monitor if earnings can catch up to justify the valuation.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HGV stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 52.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 47.00 to a high of 55.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 52.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 47.00 to a high of 55.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $14.78M worth of HGV shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
217.9K
11.20M
-11.2M
-$11.20M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
33.3K
1.39M
-1.4M
-$1.39M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
46.4K
2.19M
-2.2M
-$2.19M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Wang Mark D
Director, Officer: See Remarks
$12.10M
Corbin Charles R. Jr.
Officer: See Remarks
$2.30M
Hernandez Carlos
Officer: See Remarks
$376K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $14.78M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
hgv Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HGV by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.