Granite Ridge Resources, Inc
$4.99
-0.40%Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. manages private funds with interests in areas of the Midland, Delaware, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, and Haynesville play. It invests in oil and gas exploration and production. The company is based in Dallas, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 27.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 27.7, earnings yield +3.6%, momentum -0.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.0%, ROIC +6.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.4%, ROE +4.0%, ROIC +6.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +49.2%, momentum -0.4%, net margin +5.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Fair Value Envelope
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GRNT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 11.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 11.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.39M worth of GRNT shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
185.3K
993.38K
0
0.00
+993K
+$993K
3-6 Months
5.6K
29.62K
0
0.00
+30K
+$30K
6-9 Months
32.0K
167.69K
0
0.00
+168K
+$168K
9-12 Months
37.2K
198.98K
0
0.00
+199K
+$199K
Top Buyers
Perry Griffin
Director
$549K
Miller Matthew Reade
Director
$309K
Mccartney John
Director
$282K
Farquharson Tyler
Officer: President And Ceo
$117K
Kettler Ronald Kyle
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$72K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $1.39M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
grnt Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GRNT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.