Forestar Group Inc.
$28.48
+3.1%Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. The acquires land and develops infrastructure for single-family residential communities. It sells its residential single-family finished lots to homebuilders. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Texas. Forestar Group Inc. is a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 8.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 8.6, earnings yield +11.6%, momentum +3.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +9.5%, ROIC +5.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +10.1%, ROE +9.5%, ROIC +5.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +43.6%, momentum +3.1%, net margin +10.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Forestar Group Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Forestar Group Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Forestar Group Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Forestar Group Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Forestar Group Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Forestar Group Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FOR stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 28.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.50 to a high of 40.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 28.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.50 to a high of 40.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
Forestar Group Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $565K worth of FOR shares, with no buying activity reported.
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6-9 Months
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9-12 Months
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22.4K
564.61K
-565K
-$565K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Allen James Douglas
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$496K
Parmer Elizabeth
Director
$69K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $565K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
FOR has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
for Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FOR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.