Flowers Foods, Inc.
$7.28
-5.1%Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake brand names. The company distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates 46 bakeries comprising 44 owned and two leased. Its customers include mass merchandisers, supermarkets and other retailers, convenience stores, national and regional restaurants, quick-serve chains, retail in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 18.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 18.2, earnings yield +5.5%, momentum -5.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.4%, ROIC +6.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.6%, ROE +6.4%, ROIC +6.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.8%, momentum -5.1%, net margin +1.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Flowers Foods, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Flowers Foods, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FLO stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 10.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 8.00 to a high of 11.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 10.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 8.00 to a high of 11.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $5K and sold $8.49M worth of FLO shares, resulting in $8.49M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
209.0K
1.68M
-1.7M
-$1.68M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
209.0K
2.27M
-2.3M
-$2.27M
6-9 Months
456
4.97K
353.6K
4.54M
-4.5M
-$4.54M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Stith Melvin T
Director
$5K
Top Sellers
Mcmullian Ryals
Director, Officer: Chairman And Ceo
$8.44M
Cox Cindy
Officer: Chief Human Resources Officer
$54K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $8.49M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
flo Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FLO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.