FedEx Corporation
$324.46
-1.4%FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company's FedEx Express segment offers express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation services; time-critical transportation services; and cross-border enablement, technology, and e-commerce transportation solutions. Its FedEx Ground segment provides day-certain delivery services to businesses and residences. The company's FedEx Freight segment offers less-than-truckload freight transportation services. As of May 31, 2022, this segment had approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. Its FedEx Services segment provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collection, and back-office support services. The company's Corporate, Other and Eliminations segment offers integrated supply chain management solutions, specialty transportation, customs brokerage, and global ocean and air freight forwarding services; and document and business services, as well as retail access to its customers for its package transportation businesses. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 19.1, earnings yield +5.2%, momentum -1.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +14.6%, ROIC +6.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +4.7%, ROE +14.6%, ROIC +6.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.0%, momentum -1.4%, net margin +4.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
FedEx Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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FedEx Corporation Fair Value Envelope
FedEx Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
FedEx Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
FedEx Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
FedEx Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FDX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 358.44, with estimates ranging from a low of 155.00 to a high of 479.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 358.44, with estimates ranging from a low of 155.00 to a high of 479.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
FedEx Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $14.30M worth of FDX shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
30.7K
11.23M
-11.2M
-$11.23M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
13.0K
3.07M
-3.1M
-$3.07M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Adams Gina F.
Officer: Evp Genl Counsel/Secty
$5.13M
Brightman Tracy B
Officer: Evp - Chief People Officer
$3.30M
Preet Kawal
Officer: Evp - Plng, Eng, & Transfmtn
$1.80M
Carere Brie
Officer: Evp/Chief Customer Officer
$999K
Walsh Paul S
Director
$860K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $14.30M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
fdx Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FDX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.