Elastic N.V.
$64.11
-0.30%Elastic N.V., a search company, delivers technology solutions designed to run in public or private clouds in multi-cloud environments. It primarily offers Elastic Stack, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as perform search, analysis, and visualization. The company's Elastic Stack product portfolio comprises Elasticsearch, a distributed, real-time search and analytics engine, and data store for various types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the Elastic Stack; Beats, a single-purpose data shippers for sending data from edge machines to Elasticsearch or Logstash; Elastic Agent that offers integrated host protection and central management services; and Logstash, a data processing pipeline for ingesting data into Elasticsearch or other storage systems. It also provides software solutions on the Elastic Stack that address cases, including app search, workplace search, logging, metrics, application performance management, and synthetic monitoring. The company's platform solutions provide new capabilities that helps users to combine the benefits of the Elastic Stack. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 18.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 18.4, earnings yield +5.4%, momentum -0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE 0.0%, ROIC 0.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +21.1%, ROE 0.0%, ROIC 0.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +64.2%, momentum -0.3%, net margin +21.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Elastic N.V. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Elastic N.V. Fair Value Envelope
Elastic N.V. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Elastic N.V. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Neutral working capital impact. Changes in current assets and liabilities balanced out.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Elastic N.V. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Elastic N.V. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ESTC stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 62.88, with estimates ranging from a low of 49.00 to a high of 85.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 62.88, with estimates ranging from a low of 49.00 to a high of 85.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Elastic N.V. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $284K and sold $22.23M worth of ESTC shares, resulting in $21.95M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
38.2K
2.00M
-2.0M
-$2.00M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
54.2K
4.07M
-4.1M
-$4.07M
6-9 Months
4.0K
284.16K
60.2K
5.33M
-5.0M
-$5.05M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
125.5K
10.83M
-10.8M
-$10.83M
Top Buyers
Auvil Paul R. Iii
Director
$284K
Top Sellers
Kulkarni Ashutosh
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$8.90M
Banon Shay
Director, Officer: Chief Technology Officer
$4.47M
Dodds Mark Eugene
Officer: Chief Revenue Officer
$2.64M
Exner Ken
Officer: Chief Product Officer
$2.49M
Herzog Carolyn
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$2.06M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $21.95M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
ESTC has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
estc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ESTC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.