ECVT - NYSE

Good morning. My name is Madison, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to Ecovyst's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please note today's call is being recorded and should run approximately 1 hour. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to Gene Shiels, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to the Ecovyst First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning are Kurt Bitting, Ecovyst's Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Feehan, Ecovyst's Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we'll take your questions. Please note that some of the information shared today is forward-looking information, including information about the company's financial and operating performance, strategies, our anticipated end-use, demand trends, and our 2024 financial outlook. This information is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. Any forward-looking information shared today speaks only as of this date. These risks are discussed in the company's filings with the SEC. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures mentioned in today's call with their corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and in presentation materials posted on the Investors section of our website at ecovyst.com. I'll now turn the call over to Kurt Bitting. Kurt?

Thank you, Gene, and good morning. Ecovyst delivered solid results for the first quarter of 2024. Continued strong demand for regeneration services and higher sales of virgin sulfuric acid drove the favorable results in Ecoservices. Sales within the

Thank you, Kurt. Ecovyst sales for the first quarter of 2024, including our proportionate 50% share of sales from the

Thank you, Mike. As we move into the second quarter, we will continue to build upon the positive financial results we delivered in the first quarter. With the expectation of improved global polyethylene demand and higher sales of virgin sulfuric acid into the nylon end-use, the demand outlook across our portfolio remains positive for 2024. Ecoservices will have conducted 4 of its 5 major turnarounds in the first half of 2024, which will position the business to deliver virgin sulfuric acid and regeneration volumes in the second half of the year. We expect stronger demand fundamentals in the second half of the year, particularly for sales of polyethylene catalysts and for the timing of hydrocracking catalyst sales. As such, our previous guidance for 2024 remains unchanged. However, we will seek to leverage opportunities for incremental growth as they arise. Moreover, we believe favorable cash generation in 2024 will continue to support a balanced capital allocation strategy. Before we move to the Q&A session, I do want to comment on a recent development regarding our Houston site. The United Steelworkers Union represents a number of maintenance and operation employees at our Houston site. Unfortunately, despite our good faith efforts to reach a labor agreement with the union, the union workers went on strike on April 10. I am happy to report that we reached a tentative agreement with the union on a new 3-year contract. The Houston Plants Union ratified the new contract earlier this week, and our valued colleagues fully returned to work on May 1. During the course of the strike, operations at the Houston site continued allowing us to service our customers. Thank you for your interest in Ecovyst. And at this time, I will ask the operator to open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions]. And we will take our first question from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

So when I look at the outlook that you have for the various segments for 2024, it looks like a few things have maybe gotten a little bit more positive -- PVC outlook, and mining recovery, utilization rates in refining, yet you've largely maintained the guide. I guess, are there some negative offsets to that, that we should be thinking about? Or is it just, look, it's early in the year and you don't want to get too far ahead of yourselves? I guess, how should I be thinking about that?

Thanks for the question, John. I would say we're still early in the year. As we mentioned on the call, we're in the first -- really in the first 5 months of the year, we're going to conduct 4 of our 5 maintenance outages, which I think really puts us in a nice position to meet what we see as good demand from the regeneration segment. We're happy with the virgin acid. We do expect to have increased virgin acid volumes year-over-year with some recovery in the nylon segment, mining remaining strong. Polyethylene as expected, we believe that will be stronger in the second half of the year, which is what we had thought it was on our last call. So essentially, we feel good about where we're at, and we're happy with our results so far in the first quarter, but there's still time left in the year, but we feel good about where we're at.

And then you spoke through the prepared remarks around a pushout in terms of timing around the polyethylene catalyst side. I guess can you help us to quantify that and think about the timing of when you expect that to roll in? It sounds like it may not necessarily all be 2Q or may be pushed out into the back half of the year?

Yes, sure. So for Q1, just to recap on for Q1, our finished polyethylene catalyst sales were up year-over-year. What fell short was the polyethylene catalyst supports, which are really intermediates that either coproducers in the catalyst industries or actually polyethylene producers themselves buy from us, these advanced intermediates and they impregnate them with their own metals. And that's around 1/4 to 1/3 of what we call our polyethylene catalyst sales. So that were some timing issues. Some of it was base shipping and just when -- the order actually landed at the customers. There was some limited destocking in that space. But overall, when we look at polyethylene, both for the finished catalysts side and supports, we do expect that to be picking up in the second half of the year and for both of them to be up year-over-year.

And we will take our next question from Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Just to stay with PE catalyst, could you just step back and tell us where do you think you are in this PE catalyst cycle for yourselves? In the back half of this year, would you be at a normal run rate? Or is there still more recovery as you go into next year, maybe not looking for precise growth next year, but some idea of where you are in that cycle?

Sure. Thanks for the question, Aleksey. I think we generally look at the polyethylene market and what's expected this year is 2% to 3% growth across the globe. Now that's segmented by -- there's different regions behaving differently here in North America and the Middle East, where feedstock costs are low, those advantaged producers are above that growth rate. Other regions, such as China continues to have sluggish growth as well as Europe. But we do see overall growth growing 2% to 3% this year. As we've talked about before, historically, we -- through capturing market share and getting a disproportionate amount of the new builds and new business, we've roughly been able to double that market growth rate. So we feel good about where polyethylene is going. It clearly is recovering from where it was last year. But we expect, I guess, the momentum of that recovery to pick up more in the second half of the year.

And shifting to the merchant acid market, I mean you talked about some pricing headwinds in the second quarter. What is the net price headwind that you expect for the entire year either in dollars or percentage of price or any other metric?

Yes. Aleksey, thanks for the question. This is Mike. So I think what -- for the second quarter, we really don't have any concerns around our overall base pricing. I mean we did see some headwinds in the virgin sulfuric acid pricing model from some of the spot sales that we talked about before and some of the shorter-dated contractual pricing. The net pricing impact that we were referring to in the second quarter is really generated on the pass-through nature of some of the contracts and the timing of when those costs are incurred versus when they're passed through, right? There's a quarterly lag. And when you have significant variances that can be intensified by the variable cost, the volatility, and the variable costs. So we see that hitting us really in the second quarter, but then really moderating out for the rest of the year, right? It's really partly due to the pass-through contract timing. So we don't expect that to be something that you'll see continuing in Q3 and Q4 for the full year.

And we will take our next question from Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

Maybe just on the Kansas City expansion that you referenced in the release, I guess, how big is that in terms of a percentage basis of your capacity? And are the long-term commitments you referenced linked to the latest wave of PE capacity additions? And is there anything baked in for the larger capacity additions you see in 2026 and 2027? Are you expecting there? Or is the time line a bit closer to the first production?

Thanks for the question, Patrick. So in terms of the sizing of the Kansas City expansion, I think we've said it's a 50% expansion of our polyethylene capacity at the Kansas City site. We do have other production locations that we use around the globe, but the Kansas City, it's about a 50% production increase. And of course, as we talked about -- it is linked to contractual obligations with customers that are a part of this wave of new builds across the globe. Obviously, not at liberty to state the customers that are involved with that, but those volumes are essentially spoken for already from those customers that are expanding their polyethylene catalysts or their polyethylene production and need those catalysts. So in terms of timing of that, we do expect the expansion to be complete fourth quarter or the end of 2025, and that's really there to start meeting some of that demand that you see in call late '26, '27, '28, that time period.

Got it. And can you help size the growth that you've seen in renewable fuels catalysts in the first quarter and into 2024? How big is that business today? And what sort of growth rates are you forecasting into 2025 and beyond?

Yes. So thanks for the question. The growth rates that we see there are linked to the market, right? There's definitely a strong market push that are talking about significant growth rates. That business represents a little more than probably 10-plus percent of our overall sales from our [ AMAC ] group. We've talked about this during our Investor Day where the growth of that will be, call it, 20-plus percent over time. Obviously, that shifts quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year, but we definitely see some extremely good strength in that business as we continue to ramp it up and win new businesses.

Yes. And I think the dynamic with that, Patrick, is we played a lot in -- we call it sustainable fuels. That's mainly been limited to renewable diesel at this point. When you talk about 2025 and 2026, SAF technology will start to take hold in terms of airlines consuming the fuel [ is ] getting approved. So that is going to provide further wins at the back for the sustainable fuels business.

And we will take our next question from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

Just to follow up on that, do you have any rough metrics for kind of dollars per ton revenue opportunity for you if there are expansions in copper mining capacity if refineries move from gasoline and diesel production to chemical production, which I understand would probably increase the catalyst demand? And then also kind of your sensitivity to sort of SAF. Is there any way to help us to understand just how the kind of -- what the TAMs of the market might be on a dollar per ton basis? Are we talking $5 or hundreds of dollars or thousands?

Yes. I could probably -- I can help you a little bit on some of the questions to put the usage, I guess, of sulfuric acid. So when you look at copper solvent extraction electro-winning, which is essentially copper leaching, that consumes anywhere from 3 to 5 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of copper produced. So that's a good kind of flag for what the potential growth is in terms of sulfuric acid and copper mining. And there's various -- when you look at lithium, that uses more anywhere up to 20 tons of sulfuric acid, some other metals use different ratios. In terms of regeneration business, our customer base, which is roughly 2/3 located in the Gulf Coast has tremendous scale, and we believe they'll be in the refined products, and their business models will drive them towards exporting refined products as time goes along. And then for our West Coast refineries, obviously, the outlet that they're producing is highly valuable in the California market in order to meet those California gasoline specifications. So that's probably the best markers I can give you in terms of acid usage and some of those dynamics that you mentioned.

And then just the opportunity for catalyst?

Yes. So for catalyst, we do see the polyethylene catalyst or polyethylene demand, as we talked about, continuing to grow in that 3% range. We sell a lot of catalysts both into the Middle East and North American markets where we see continued expansions and there's planned expansions that have been announced, obviously, to take advantage of the low feedstock cost, low natural gas, and so forth. So we've always -- one of the reasons we made the expansion decision for Kansas City was to -- and those customer commitments that we have for backing that investment up or to meet some of that growing demand long term. That's benefiting from lower feedstock costs here in the U.S. and Middle East.

[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question from Hamed Khorsand with BWS Financial.

So I just wanted to understand the level of conversation you're having with customers looking out for the rest of the year that gives you confidence that the rest of the year is not at risk, given where Q1 and potentially Q2 ends up falling.

Sure. Thanks for the question, Hamed. So if we look at -- if we just go across the spectrum of the major end-use customers, we obviously -- the products that we supply to those customers is very important. We're generally sole-sourced with a lot of our customers, so we do get a very good window into their forecast because some of the products obviously take longer to make if it's terms of catalyst and then the sulfuric acid and the sulfuric acid regeneration has very high utilization across the country. So the customers are generally very transparent with us in terms of their forecast. So when you look at regeneration, the things we mentioned on the call, there are very good margins for octane and [ outlet ] right now. So we see that demand carrying through the year. Exports are up due to the global dynamics going on right now and the U.S. refining capacity having a nice advantage there. Virgin sulfuric acid, which we were uncertain with on the last call. What I would say is pricing there has stabilized from the last call as well as we expect the nylon end-use sales to rise year-over-year. Mining remains very firm. As you can see, the metals prices have firmed here in the last 3 to 6 months. And there are still some pockets in virgin acid for certain industrial applications that I would say are less certain. But in general, things have stabilized nicely there. And then moving over to polyethylene catalysts, as we just talked about, there's growth year-over-year. We do expect that to pick up more momentum in the second half of the year. And then hydrocracking, which is another large chunk, those orders, we do have good visibility to now -- or better visibility to now later on in the year. And again, those are longer lead-time catalyst items that have to be produced. So we generally have a good visibility on those.

Okay. And then could you just quantify what kind of impact you're expecting in Q2 as far as the downtime is considered?

Well, we have 2 planned turnarounds for the quarter, which was one more than we had in Q2 of last year. But the downtime itself will be very similar to Q1, right? So we executed 2 maintenance turnarounds in this Q1 2024 this year. So it will be similar to Q1, slightly more than it was Q2 of last year. But we're happy with where we're set up really because those turnarounds will all be complete really by the end of May, which leaves us with 80% of our turnaround activity completed for the year and with a decent volume outlook for the remainder of the year.

It appears that we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

Thank you, Madison. Thank you to all of our participants this morning for your interest in Ecovyst and your thoughtful questions. With that, we'll conclude our call.