Brinker International, Inc.
$140.26
+0.56%Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, it owned, operated, or franchised 1,648 restaurants comprising 1,594 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar name and 54 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 16.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 16.3, earnings yield +6.1%, momentum +0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +1.0%, ROIC +20.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.1%, ROE +1.0%, ROIC +20.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +86.2%, momentum +0.6%, net margin +7.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Brinker International, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Brinker International, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Brinker International, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Brinker International, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Brinker International, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Brinker International, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that EAT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 184.46, with estimates ranging from a low of 155.00 to a high of 210.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 184.46, with estimates ranging from a low of 155.00 to a high of 210.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Brinker International, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $31.83M worth of EAT shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
1.5K
205.86K
-206K
-$206K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
103.0K
16.60M
-16.6M
-$16.60M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
17.1K
2.65M
-2.6M
-$2.65M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
77.6K
12.37M
-12.4M
-$12.37M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Hochman Kevin
Director, Officer: Pres. & Ceo
$17.52M
Felix George S
Officer: Svp, Chief Marketing Officer
$3.55M
Comings Douglas N.
Officer: Svp & Coo, Chili'S
$2.73M
Edelman Harriet
Director
$2.64M
Depinto Joseph Michael
Director
$1.70M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $31.83M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
eat Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on EAT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.