HF Sinclair Corporation
$73.34
+3.6%HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 23.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 23.6, earnings yield +4.2%, momentum +3.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.3%, ROIC +5.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.1%, ROE +6.3%, ROIC +5.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +44.7%, momentum +3.6%, net margin +2.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
HF Sinclair Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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HF Sinclair Corporation Fair Value Envelope
HF Sinclair Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
HF Sinclair Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
HF Sinclair Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
HF Sinclair Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that DINO stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 70.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 53.00 to a high of 81.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 70.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 53.00 to a high of 81.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
HF Sinclair Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.04M and sold $1.39M worth of DINO shares, resulting in $356K of net selling activity.
3 Months
15.0K
1.04M
13.1K
908.28K
+128K
+$128K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
314
16.73K
-17K
-$17K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
11.0K
467.83K
-468K
-$468K
Top Buyers
Myers Franklin
Director, Officer: Ceo And President
$1.04M
Top Sellers
Pompa Valerie
Officer: Evp, Operations
$1.16M
Joyce Matthew
Officer: Svp, Lubricants & Specialties
$166K
Garg Vivek
Officer: Acting Cfo, Vp, Cao & Contr
$68K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $356K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Positive recent trend with net buying activity. Insiders have been accumulating shares in recent months.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
dino Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on DINO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.