$611.14
+3.9%Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. Its stores offer merchandise, including fashion apparel for women, men, and children; and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated 280 Dillard's stores, including 30 clearance centers, and an Internet store at dillards.com. It also engages in the general contracting construction activities. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $733.5M | $750.4M | $767.6M | $785.3M | $803.4M | $821.9M | $840.8M | $860.1M | $879.9M | $900.1M |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$19.1M | -$19.5M | -$20.0M | -$20.5M | -$20.9M | -$21.4M | -$21.9M | -$22.4M | -$22.9M | -$23.5M |
| Owner Earnings | $714.4M | $730.8M | $747.6M | $764.8M | $782.4M | $800.4M | $818.9M | $837.7M | $857.0M | $876.7M |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $661.5M | $626.6M | $593.5M | $562.2M | $532.5M | $504.4M | $477.8M | $452.6M | $428.7M | $406.1M |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.