Ducommun Incorporated
$146.92
-1.1%Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing products and services primarily to the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. The Electronic Systems segment provides cable assemblies and interconnect systems; printed circuit board assemblies; higher-level electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical components and assemblies, as well as lightning diversion systems; and radar enclosures, aircraft avionics racks, shipboard communications and control enclosures, shipboard communications and control enclosures, printed circuit board assemblies, cable assemblies, wire harnesses, interconnect systems, lightning diversion strips, surge suppressors, conformal shields, and other assemblies. It also supplies engineered products, including illuminated pushbutton switches and panels for aviation and test systems; microwave and millimeter switches and filters for radio frequency systems and test instrumentation; and motors and resolvers for motion control. In addition, this segment provides engineering expertise for aerospace system design, development, integration, and testing. The Structural Systems segment designs, engineers, and manufactures contoured aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero structure components; structural assembly products, such as winglets, engine components, and fuselage structural panels; and metal and composite bonded structures and assemblies comprising aircraft wing spoilers, large fuselage skins, rotor blades on rotary-wing aircraft and components, flight control surfaces, engine components, ammunition handling systems, and magnetic seals. It serves commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft, and space programs, as well as industrial, medical, and other end-use markets. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -64.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E -64.7, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -5.1%, ROIC -2.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin -4.1%, ROE -5.1%, ROIC -2.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +44.2%, momentum -1.1%, net margin -4.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Ducommun Incorporated Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earningsโcaution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 103.1%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-185.9%), the stock price has risen (+103.1%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Ducommun Incorporated Fair Value Envelope
Ducommun Incorporated Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Ducommun Incorporated Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโmonitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Ducommun Incorporated Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Ducommun Incorporated Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that DCO stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 144.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 132.00 to a high of 150.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 144.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 132.00 to a high of 150.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Ducommun Incorporated Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $6.35M worth of DCO shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
27.6K
3.81M
-3.8M
-$3.81M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
16.7K
2.16M
-2.2M
-$2.16M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
1.6K
149.56K
-150K
-$150K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
2.8K
231.43K
-231K
-$231K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Mookerji Suman B.
Officer: Sr. V.P., C.F.O.
$3.32M
Baldridge Richard A
Director
$1.37M
Redondo Jerry L
Officer: S.V.P., Elec. & Struc. Systems
$1.28M
Tata Rajiv A.
Officer: V.P., G.C. & Corp. Secretary
$293K
Gonzalez Laureen S.
Officer: V.P., Chro
$90K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $6.35M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโmay warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
DCO has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
dco Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on DCO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.